740
FXUS65 KPSR 141025
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER DESERTS.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM CLIPPING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES, AND YET
ANOTHER DRIER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS WAS ANTICIPATED, FRIDAY'S TROUGH DID NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING
NO MEASURABLE RAIN TO AT MOST 0.10" JUST EAST OF PHOENIX. THE
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IS QUICKLY
BEING REPLACED BY A TRANSIENT 577-579DAM H5 RIDGE, WITH DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR. AFTER A DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY -
AFTER A CHILLIER START TO THE DAY IN THE 40S AND 50S - UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE WILL BE AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY,
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COASTAL TROUGH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING 80
DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AND WARM AFTERNOONS, WILL MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SIT OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND BEARING SEA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK TO
WEEK AND A HALF. THIS POSITIONING WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SEVERAL
TROUGHS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE U.S WEST COAST, BRINGING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS. FOLLOWING THE TRANSIENT RIDGE THIS WEEKEND, A
LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH/LOW WILL DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP INTO
SOME RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DRAW IT UP INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY. IVT VALUES ARE FORECAST AS HIGH AS
400-500 KG/MS IN SOUTHERN AZ BY LATE MONDAY, WITH PWAT VALUES UP
TO 150-200% OF NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO,
CA BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD INLAND, BUT WITH AT LEAST
A COUPLE EMBEDDED, FAST-MOVING, SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. A VERY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL ALSO SET UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
250MB WIND SPEEDS FORECAST AS HIGH AS 150-170KTS DIRECTLY OVER
THE LOCAL AREA.
EVEN THOUGH THE COASTAL LOW STAYS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW TAKES A
TRAJECTORY FROM LA UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NV, THERE WILL STILL LIKELY
BE CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PERHAPS MOST
NOTABLY FROM WIND, WITH THE VERY STRONG JET OVERHEAD AND LOW AND
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30-50KTS. DESPITE
THE TRACK OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT DRAGGING THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE JET DYNAMICS, AND STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE AZ TERRAIN LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS TO DRIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE WINDOW FOR THIS ALL COMING TOGETHER MAY BE RELATIVELY SHORT,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOWER DESERT PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOW A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL PUNCH OF DRY STABLE AIR ABOVE 600MB, CUTTING OFF THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, RIGHT AROUND THE SAME TIME, IF NOT JUST
BEFORE, THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO HONE IN THIS WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH A WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF POPS, PEAKING AROUND 70% IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ MONDAY NIGHT THAT THEN FALLS TO UNDER 20% BY
LATE-TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE SHORTER WINDOW AND LIKELY FAST
MOVING SHOWERS, QPF IS NOT VERY HIGH, WITH AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM
0.00-0.25" ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN
THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT COLDER, ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS
ARE LIKELY TO MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 6500 FEET.
TUESDAY, DURING THE DAY, MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE SECOND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE PARENT TROUGH AND PASSING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COUPLE OF
TROUGHS THEN LOOK TO CLIP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE SUBSEQUENT TROUGHS WILL BE WORKING
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND THE FORECAST TRACKS OF THE TROUGHS ARE NOT
IDEAL FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA. ENERGY WITH THE WEDNESDAY TROUGH MAY MISS JUST
NORTH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN WESTERN
JOSHUA TREE NP WEDNESDAY IF THE LOWER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN
PENETRATE THE TALL SOCAL MOUNTAINS. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE PACKING,
THE STRONG JET STREAK OVERHEAD, AND STRONG WEST TO EAST FLOW
WEDNESDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPACT AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA WHERE DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENTS MAY
LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL EASILY BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH, BUT THE NBM ONLY SHOWS READINGS FALLING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. LOWER DESERT FORECAST HIGHS FROM
TUESDAY-FRIDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ONCE DRIER
AIR AND CALMER WINDS DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME RURAL DESERT
AREAS MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2335Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DURING THE EVENING PERIOD WILL BE
MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE. WINDS LOOK TO FAVOR AN E'RLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM CONDITIONS
MAY EXIST AFTER SUNSET. LINGERING SHRA MIGHT STICK AROUND THROUGH
03Z BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD EXIT THE AIRSPACE BY 03Z. CIGS
GENERALLY AOA 7K FT (6K FT FOR TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS)
WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BEFORE A PERIOD OF SKC SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TRY TO RESEMBLE DIURNAL TRENDS BUT IT
APPEARS THAT PERIOD OF VRB TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE FORECAST. FEW LOW DECKS WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARM, ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MINRH VALUES THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND 20-30%. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND
THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATEST IMPACTS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH LIKELY
AND 35+ MPH IN MOUNTAINS AND EAST-FACING DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. MINRH VALUES ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO 25-35% THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH GRADUAL DRYING DURING THE SECOND HALF.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...BENEDICT
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT
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