879
FXUS65 KPSR 151011
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
311 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, UNDER PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER
DESERTS.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM CLIPPING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES, AND YET
ANOTHER DRIER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING ALREADY SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A LARGE TROUGH IS SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S.. THIS IS LEADING TO DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WITH A FETCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TODAY, TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 80F. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH.
THE PRIMARY TALK OF THE FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN THE
ANTICIPATED ADVERSE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THE STRONG COASTAL TROUGH
AND ITS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, FROM RAIN, SNOW, AND WIND, WILL MOSTLY
MISS THE SOUTHERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS, IN FAVOR OF THE CA
COASTAL AREAS AND RANGES AND NORTHERN AZ UP INTO SOUTHERN NV AND UT.
THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE PVA FORECAST TRACKS STAYING JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. PERHAPS MOST NOTABLY FROM WIND, WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND A VERY STRONG JET STREAK DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD, WITH 250MB WIND SPEEDS UP TO 160-170KTS. GLOBAL MODELS,
AND NOW HI-RES MODELS, CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AS
WELL, WITH 850-700MB WINDS REACHING 40-50KTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS UP TO
25-40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH, THERE MAY BE A LIMIT TO HOW
MUCH WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRAW A RELATIVELY NARROW, BUT
CONSIDERABLE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MONDAY, WITH EC ENS AND NAEFS SUPPORTING IVT VALUES UP
TO 400-500 KG/MS (AROUND 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY) AND PWATS
UP TO 0.75-0.90" (150-200% OF NORMAL). THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH HIGHEST POPS (80%) RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. THE HIGHEST POPS DUE LINE UP WITH THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST, OF THE LOWER
DESERTS. DESPITE THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST MISSING,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW-MID LEVEL FRONT SLIDING ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH POTENTIALLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DO SUPPORT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG OF SBCAPE). SO, A STRONGER SOLID
LINE, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER, CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS FRONT AND
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN STRONGER, 30-40
MPH, WINDS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS, SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY, WHICH WILL LIKELY GREATLY
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST QPF FORECAST RANGES FROM 0.00-0.20"
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO 0.25-0.50" NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
HIGHEST ODDS FOR >0.50" WILL BE NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX AT AROUND 80%
IN PAYSON, COMPARED TO ONLY 10% IN PHOENIX. THERE WILL BE PRETTY
QUICK DRYING POST-FRONT, THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND
POPS DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW LINGERING SPOTTY
WEAK SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN WITH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM, BUT WITH
THE CORE OF THE LOW STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, THERE WILL NOT
BE A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN. FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY AND RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL TUESDAY WITH UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY, MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WITH THE TEMPERATURES STAYING WARMER, SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND 7000-8000'. HOWEVER, SHOULD A STRONG LINE
OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RAPIDLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 6000'.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER COUPLE OF TROUGHS LOOK TO FOLLOW THE VAPOR TRAILS OF THE
MON-TUE SYSTEM, PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THESE FOLLOW-ON TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
VERY QUICKLY, WITH THE STRONG JET STREAK EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE
OVER HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (GREAT IF YOU ARE FLYING
EAST AND WANT A QUICKER FLIGHT!). THESE TROUGHS WILL ALSO LIKELY
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER DESERTS, LARGELY DUE TO THE JET
STREAK, AND PASS THROUGH ON MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST TRAJECTORY.
AFTER ALREADY DRYING FOLLOWING THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK (PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.40"), THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE TROUGHS
AS WELL ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS. LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS, DOWN MOSTLY TO 10-20%, WITH INCREASING POPS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SOCAL
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH
STRONG WEST-TO-EAST WINDS STILL IN PLACE WITH THE STRONG JET
OVERHEAD. SO ANY SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKELY WILL NOT
PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH THE
FOLLOW-ON SYSTEMS, TO WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL DOWN TO
4000-4500', BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO STICK. THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE (5-10%) FOR A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN WESTERN JOSHUA TREE
NP WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE THINGS TO EXPECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DESERTS WITH THE
NEXT TROUGHS IS MORE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS
STRONGER THAN WITH THE EARLY-WEEK TROUGH, DUE MOSTLY TO TIMING.
THE WEDNESDAY TROUGH WILL PASS MORE DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL
FAIR BETTER FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE WEST-TO-EAST
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL ALSO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING
ENHANCEMENTS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA. WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED SPOTS UP TO 45-50 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CA. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH HAS
NOT HAPPENED MUCH THIS WINTER. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 560DAM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 1-2C FOR THE THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER DESERT LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S TO MID AND UPPER 30S IN SOME RURAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS, AND SUB-70F HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOONS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC OUTLOOK HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND THIS FAR OUT, BUT OVER 50% OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR
A RETURN OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND THUS WARMING
TEMPERATURES. LATEST NBM FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING
BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0510Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER PASSING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
NO WESTERLY WIND SHIFT ANTICIPATED. EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
RETURNS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 8 KTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER PASSING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST TO WEST AT KIPL AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT KBLH WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT VARIABILITY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KBLH AND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AT KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TODAY WITH MINRH VALUES
AROUND 20-30%. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH S-SE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH, MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN DISTRICTS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL THEN IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-40 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN
MOUNTAINS AND EAST-FACING DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO
SUDDEN STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT (10%). MINRH VALUES ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO 25-35% THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH GRADUAL DRYING DURING THE SECOND HALF. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD AT AROUND 60-80%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ560-
561-564-568-570.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...BENEDICT
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT
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