954
FNUS55 KPSR 160824
FWFPSR
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
124 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
DISCUSSION
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES
LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SUDDEN STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT (10%). MINRH
VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25-40% ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS TO 30-55% OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
NOTE...ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SEE PRODUCT PHXAFDPSR.
AZZ132-162030-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS/NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY/GREATER PHOENIX
AREA/SOUTHWEST DESERTS/SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY/
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
PHOENIX BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ-
124 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................67-74.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................24-38 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................8 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................20 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR PHOENIX.......5600 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR PHOENIX......SOUTH 21 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR PHOENIX..........EXCELLENT.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................45-55.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................67-89 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................15 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................40 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 PERCENT WEST PORTION...40
PERCENT EAST PORTION.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............8 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................63-71.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................27-36 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 30 TO 40 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR PHOENIX.......7100 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR PHOENIX......SOUTHWEST 9 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR PHOENIX..........GOOD.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
38-48. HIGHS 59-69. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38-48. HIGHS 58-65. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS 38-48.
HIGHS 61-67. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38-49. HIGHS 65-72.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 42-54. HIGHS 73-78.
AZZ131-CAZ231-162030-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
124 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026 /1224 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026/
TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................71-76.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................33-38 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................10 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 55 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................20 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR YUMA..........2900 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR YUMA.........SOUTH 19 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR YUMA.............GOOD.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................46-51.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................71-89 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 55 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................50 PERCENT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING 0 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............2 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................68-73.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................30-36 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 30 TO 40 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR YUMA..........7600 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR YUMA.........SOUTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR YUMA.............EXCELLENT.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
BREEZY. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38-49. HIGHS 64-69.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38-45. HIGHS 62-67. WEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 37-45. HIGHS 64-69. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 37-48. HIGHS 67-72.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40-52. HIGHS 72-77.
AZZ133-162030-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN TONTO NF/WEST SAN CARLOS BIA/SOUTH PORTION FT APACHE BIA/
CAZ-
124 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................59-72.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................25-34 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................10 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BECOMING SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................37-50.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................89-100 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................29 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 55 TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................80 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................80 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............12 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................46-61.
* 24 HR TREND..................11 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................43-60 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................23 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................60 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................50 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............8 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
BREEZY. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
32-45. HIGHS 47-60. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 29-44. HIGHS 44-57. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS 26-41. HIGHS 47-61. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 26-45. HIGHS 53-67.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 31-53. HIGHS 60-75.
CAZ232-162030-
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY-
1224 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................64-75.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................31-46 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................10 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT IN THE MORNING BECOMING
40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................45-52.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................66-89 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................8 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 50 TO 60 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................50 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............3 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................62-73.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................30-45 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 35 TO 45 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
BREEZY. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS 40-53. HIGHS 59-69. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40-48. HIGHS 57-67. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40-48. HIGHS 59-69. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 41-51. HIGHS 62-72.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 44-55. HIGHS 68-76.
CAZ230-162030-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
1224 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................51-66.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................38-50 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................15 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT IN THE MORNING BECOMING
70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................34-44.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................76-100 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................17 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING WEST AND BECOMING 40 TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................60 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................60 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............5 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................49-64.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................33-58 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 35 TO 45 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
BREEZY. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
30-46. HIGHS 45-60. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
30-40. HIGHS 45-59. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 30-41. HIGHS 48-61. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 31-45. HIGHS 51-64.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 36-50. HIGHS 57-70.
8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK
MONDAY FEBRUARY 23RD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FEBRUARY 25TH: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION.
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