423
FNUS55 KPSR 162029
FWFPSR
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
129 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
DISCUSSION
A WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS, CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH
40-50 MPH AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 50-80% ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A LOW (10%) CHANCE
FOR LIGHTNING. AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25-40%
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO 30-55% OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
..THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY WINDS
NOTE...ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SEE PRODUCT PHXAFDPSR.
AZZ132-170830-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS/NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY/GREATER PHOENIX
AREA/SOUTHWEST DESERTS/SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY/
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
PHOENIX BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ-
129 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................46-56.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................65-87 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................13 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 55 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................50 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 PERCENT WEST PORTION...50
PERCENT EAST PORTION.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............5 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................63-71.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................28-36 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR PHOENIX.......7800 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR PHOENIX......SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR PHOENIX..........VERY GOOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................42-52.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................67-88 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 45 TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS .
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................59-68.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................28-41 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................20 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............2 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR PHOENIX.......4200 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR PHOENIX......WEST 18 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR PHOENIX..........VERY GOOD.
EXTENDED
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 37-47. HIGHS 58-65. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38-48. HIGHS 60-67. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38-50. HIGHS 66-72. NORTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 44-54. HIGHS 72-78.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 46-56. HIGHS 77-83.
AZZ131-CAZ231-170830-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
129 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026 /1229 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026/
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE
EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................47-52.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................68-88 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 50 TO 60 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................40 PERCENT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING 0 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............4 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................67-72.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................30-34 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 35 TO 45 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR YUMA..........7600 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR YUMA.........SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR YUMA.............EXCELLENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................44-49.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................67-80 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING 55 TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST .
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................63-68.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................25-33 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING WEST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 65 TO 75 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............2 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR YUMA..........3800 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR YUMA.........WEST 29 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR YUMA.............EXCELLENT.
EXTENDED
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38-46. HIGHS 62-67. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 37-46. HIGHS 64-69. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 37-50. HIGHS 67-72. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 43-51. HIGHS 72-77.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 44-54. HIGHS 77-82.
AZZ133-170830-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN TONTO NF/WEST SAN CARLOS BIA/SOUTH PORTION FT APACHE BIA/
CAZ-
129 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING BECOMING SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................36-49.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................88-100 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................29 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 55 TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................90 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................90 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............8 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING BECOMING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................46-61.
* 24 HR TREND..................11 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................42-61 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................21 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................80 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................50 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............8 PERCENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................32-46.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................74-98 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................11 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 35 TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS .
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................45-59.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................46-67 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 45 TO 55 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................60 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............5 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 30-43. HIGHS 44-57. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 25-43. HIGHS 46-60.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 25-47. HIGHS 53-67. NORTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 33-52. HIGHS 59-74.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 38-54. HIGHS 64-79.
CAZ232-170830-
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY-
1229 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY BLOWING
DUST IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................44-52.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................67-87 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................7 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 50 TO 60 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................50 PERCENT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............4 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................61-72.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................30-44 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 35 TO 45 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................46-53.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................59-79 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................7 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING 60 TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT IN THE EVENING BECOMING
10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST .
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................58-68.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................23-36 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 65 TO 75 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................30 PERCENT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 39-48. HIGHS 57-67. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40-48. HIGHS 59-69. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40-52. HIGHS 62-71. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 45-55. HIGHS 67-75.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 48-57. HIGHS 72-81.
CAZ230-170830-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
1229 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................34-44.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................75-100 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................16 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING WEST AND BECOMING 40 TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................60 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................40 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............4 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................48-64.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................33-58 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 40 TO 50 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................10 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................35-47.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................69-95 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 65 TO 75 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................50 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............1 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................45-60.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................24-46 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................9 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..BREEZY. WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 65 TO 75 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................50 PERCENT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................30 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............2 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 30-41. HIGHS 44-59. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 31-41. HIGHS 48-61. WEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 31-47. HIGHS 51-64. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 37-49. HIGHS 57-69.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 40-52. HIGHS 61-74.
8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK
TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24TH THROUGH THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 26TH: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.
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