684
FXUS65 KPSR 031019
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
319 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HELP TO BRING GRADUAL COOLING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHILE ALSO BRIEFLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES
MORE INTO THE NORMAL RANGE ON FRIDAY.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED OUT WEATHER SYSTEM NEAR OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING A ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BY AROUND NEXT MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WORKING ITS WAY
THROUGH ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO
LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. EVEN MORE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION TODAY DROPPING PWATS TO 75% OF NORMAL AND ELIMINATING ANY
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
NO INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BY THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO ARIZONA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
INCOMING SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNKNOWNS WITH ITS EVOLUTION, HOW LONG IT WILL STICK AROUND, AND
WHETHER OR NOT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR FUTURE. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE COME TO A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY BEFORE A SECOND
PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION, BUT
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO BRING
ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE HIGHS TEMPERATURES
ALSO DROP JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ONCE
THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS INTO THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS AT LEAST GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS FEATURE TO
CAUSE A NEW UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTAIN LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE
AS THEY BRIEFLY PASS THROUGH OR BRUSH BY OUR REGION. NBM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING COOLER FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NOW
POTENTIALLY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 75
DEGREES. UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW THIS
WEEKEND IS IMPACTING THE POTENTIAL RANGE FOR OUR FORECAST
TEMPERATURES, BUT THEY SHOULD AT LEAST BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 80S
IF THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A QUICK DEEPENING OF THE LOW THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL AS IT STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BAJA.
THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND HOW LONG IT STALLS OUT WILL
LIKELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MOISTURE WILL GET TRANSPORTED INTO
OUR REGION. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN
LEANING TOWARD A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IN TURN
HAS LED TO AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINTING AT
SOME MAINLY LIGHT QPF INTO THE REGION, FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF ARIZONA. NBM POPS HAVE RISEN WITH THE LATEST
RUN, BUT CHANCES MAX OUT AT 20% ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
LOWER DESERTS TO 40% OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY RESULT IN
DECREASING MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0533Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY STAYING BELOW 10 KTS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT VARIABILITY LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON,
DURING THE DIURNAL WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND CLEAR BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AT KIPL BEFORE SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY
AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE LATE-MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, WITH
SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 10 KTS, AT KIPL, WHILE KBLH SEES SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN CIRRUS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A
DRY WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIGHTER TODAY EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL LIGHT
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY. MINRHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
BETWEEN 10-15% AREAWIDE, FOLLOWED BY FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
COMMONLY BETWEEN 30-50%. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM LATER THIS
WEEK SHOULD AGAIN BRING WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
WHILE DROPPING HIGHS MOSTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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