869
FXUS65 KPSR 050958
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
258 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN
WITH READINGS COOLING INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY, WARMING BACK UP
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING BRIEFLY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS.
- A STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A TROUGHING FEATURE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. TODAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
REACHING 80 DEGREES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
DOWN THE DESERT SW TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
DOWN FURTHER FOR TOMORROW. IN TURN, FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHER THAN COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE TO WIND SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA,
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. WHILE THIS ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. AREAS OUTSIDE
OF THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE INCOMING TROUGHING
FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A CUT OFF LOW STARTING SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THIS DEVELOPING CUT- OFF LOW WILL LIKELY SET UP JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND LOCATION. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING PWATS INCREASING TO ANYWHERE BETWEEN 150-180%
OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO MODELS PROJECTING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERN ARIZONA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS HAVE THE BEST POP
CHANCES, NEAR 40-50% WITH QPF VALUES MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN 0.25".
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 0.05-0.10", WHILE MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
AT ALL AS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN STEADILY CLIMB STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVER BAJA ON SATURDAY,
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LINGERING NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AS THE
CUT-OFF LOW TIGHTENS OVER THE NW BAJA COAST, THE REGION WILL BEGIN
TO WARM AS THE LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE REGION'S SW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE LOWER DESERT AREAS
BEING UNDER MINOR HEATRISK THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AS THE CORE OF
THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO STARTING
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S. BY
TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE TO THE REGION'S EAST, EJECTING INTO
WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE PLAINS. OVER THE DESERT SW H5 HEIGHTS
WILL THEN BE ABLE TO STEADILY CLIMB, LEADING TO A STEADY INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0533Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN
16-18Z THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY PEAKING BETWEEN 22-02Z. EXPECT A FEW PERIODS OF
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SKC SKIES MOST OF
THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME SLANTWISE VISIBILITY IMPACTS FROM LOFTED
DUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
THURSDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LLWS CONDITIONS AT KBLH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING THURSDAY MID
MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT LLWS CRITERIA
WILL BE MET AT KBLH, BUT THE BEST TIMING FOR LLWS CONDITIONS WILL
BE 11-15Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 10 KTS) AND
GENERALLY CONTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL THURSDAY MID MORNING,
WITH PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO
25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLH, WHICH MAY ALSO BRING WITH IT SOME
BLOWING DUST AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VISIBILITY. AFTERNOON
GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT KIPL, MOSTLY AROUND 20-25 KTS.
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DRY DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT PASSING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BRINGING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN 10-15% THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30-50% RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY, WITH WEST GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
IN THE PHOENIX AREA AND PEAK WNW GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BEFORE A POTENTIAL SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ560-561-564-568>570.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT/WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/95
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