834
FXUS65 KPSR 051139
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
439 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN
WITH READINGS COOLING INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY, WARMING BACK UP
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING BRIEFLY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS.
- A STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A TROUGHING FEATURE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. TODAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
REACHING 80 DEGREES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
DOWN THE DESERT SW TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
DOWN FURTHER FOR TOMORROW. IN TURN, FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHER THAN COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE TO WIND SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA,
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. WHILE THIS ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. AREAS OUTSIDE
OF THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE INCOMING TROUGHING
FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A CUT OFF LOW STARTING SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THIS DEVELOPING CUT- OFF LOW WILL LIKELY SET UP JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
WITH THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND LOCATION. HOWEVER, EVEN
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING PWATS INCREASING
TO ANYWHERE BETWEEN 150-180% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS
LED TO MODELS PROJECTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERN ARIZONA IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS HAVE THE BEST POP CHANCES, NEAR 40-50% WITH QPF
VALUES MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN 0.25". OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 0.05-0.10",
WHILE MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL AS THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN STEADILY CLIMB STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVER BAJA ON
SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LINGERING
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW TIGHTENS OVER THE NW BAJA COAST,
THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BE TOO FAR
TO THE REGION'S SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO THE LOWER DESERT AREAS BEING UNDER MINOR HEATRISK THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. AS THE CORE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARDS
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO STARTING MONDAY, TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S. BY TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE
TO THE REGION'S EAST, EJECTING INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
PLAINS. OVER THE DESERT SW H5 HEIGHTS WILL THEN BE ABLE TO
STEADILY CLIMB, LEADING TO A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S BY AROUND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1140Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING
OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 18Z AND BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, LIKELY PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SLANTWISE VISIBILITY IMPACTS FROM LOFTED DUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET TODAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LLWS CONDITIONS AT KBLH EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT LLWS CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT
KBLH, BUT THE BEST TIMING FOR LLWS CONDITIONS WILL 12-15Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 10 KTS) AND GENERALLY CONTAIN A WESTERLY
COMPONENT UNTIL MID MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF VARIABILITY POSSIBLE.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLH, WHICH MAY
ALSO BRING WITH IT SOME BLOWING DUST AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
SURFACE VISIBILITY. AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT KIPL,
MOSTLY AROUND 20-25 KTS. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DRY DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT PASSING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BRINGING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN 10-15% THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30-50% RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY, WITH WEST GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
IN THE PHOENIX AREA AND PEAK WNW GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BEFORE A POTENTIAL SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ560-561-564-568>570.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/95
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