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FXUS65 KPSR 060533
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1033 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE
THE REGION.
- THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRESENT RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
- HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH CONSISTENT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
MAKE THEIR RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CURRENT 500MB RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND HAS HELPED PROVIDE SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK OF THE WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN OBSERVED, IT WILL
NOT BE THE LAST OF THE GUSTS THAT WE SEE. WINDS 25-30 MPH WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS LOWER DESERT AREAS, WHILE HIGHER GUSTS 30-35 MPH
WILL BE MORE COMMON FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE
OUT IN SE CA SUCH AS THE CHOCOLATE MTNS AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF JOSHUA TREE NP. DUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND THE PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THEIR COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS TROUGH, EVENTUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AS THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND, MAINLY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY UP THROUGH THE WESTERN PEAKS OF JOSHUA TREE NP, WHICH THE
LATTER COULD POTENTIALLY SEE GUSTS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. AS OF NOW,
NO WIND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PARK DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. IF GUSTS WERE TO REACH
40 MPH OR HIGHER, THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED OVER THE TALLEST
RIDE TOPS. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO SEE THEIR LOWEST VALUES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK ON FRIDAY DUE TO A REINFORCING FEED OF COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. MAXTS FOR THAT AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S, RIGHT AROUND AND EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN
MARCH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE INCOMING TROUGHING
FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A CUT OFF LOW STARTING SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THIS DEVELOPING CUT- OFF LOW WILL LIKELY SET UP JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
WITH THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND LOCATION. HOWEVER, EVEN
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING PWATS INCREASING
TO ANYWHERE BETWEEN 150-180% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS
LED TO MODELS PROJECTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERN ARIZONA IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS HAVE THE BEST POP CHANCES, NEAR 40-50% WITH QPF
VALUES MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN 0.25". OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 0.05-0.10",
WHILE MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL AS THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN STEADILY CLIMB STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVER BAJA ON
SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LINGERING
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW TIGHTENS OVER THE NW BAJA COAST,
THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BE TOO FAR
TO THE REGION'S SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO THE LOWER DESERT AREAS BEING UNDER MINOR HEATRISK THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. AS THE CORE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARDS
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO STARTING MONDAY, TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S. BY TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE
TO THE REGION'S EAST, EJECTING INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
PLAINS. OVER THE DESERT SW H5 HEIGHTS WILL THEN BE ABLE TO
STEADILY CLIMB, LEADING TO A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S BY AROUND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0530Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE METRO TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 8-11 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON A FULL E/SE WIND SHIFT
AT KPHX. INSTEAD, WINDS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH SOME VARIABILITY BEFORE
RETURNING FULLY OUT OF THE WEST BY 16Z-17Z. SPEED WILL BE LIGHTER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
N-NW WINDS HAVE RELAXED AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 7-8 KTS. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, MINOR
LLWS COULD DEVELOP AT KBLH, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 11-15Z FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTS WILL PICK UP AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING,
REACHING 20-25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DRY DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT PASSING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BRINGING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ENTRENCHED
BETWEEN 10-15% THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30-50% RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY, WITH WEST GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
IN THE PHOENIX AREA AND PEAK WNW GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BEFORE A POTENTIAL SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/95
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