218
FXUS65 KPSR 060952
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
252 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE
THE REGION.
- THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRESENT
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
- HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH CONSISTENT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
MAKE THEIR RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH, THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA YESTERDAY, NOW TO THE EAST DIGGING DOWN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS TROUGHING
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE DESERT SW TODAY LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT, THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THIS TROUGH
WILL BREAK OFF AND DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF THE NW COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CUT-OFF LOW WILL
BE TOO FAR SW FROM THE REGION TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE MID TO HIGH 70S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, SWINGING TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY.
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, INTO THE CHOCOLATE MOUNTAINS AND
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY, SO
NO WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT, BUT WIND GUSTS CAN STILL BE IN
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH IN THOSE AREAS, WITH MOUNTAIN PEAKS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40 MPH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
STALL IN THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AS THIS CUT-OFF
REMAINS STATIONARY TO THE REGION'S SW, IT WILL ALLOW H5 HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO INCREASE TO AROUND 570-573 DAM OVER THE LOWER DESERTS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE RELIEF AS SKIES WILL
ALSO REMAIN CLEAR. RESULTING IN MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, WITH MANY MODELS NOW
PUSHING THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS PROJECTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW (20-30%) WITH EXPECTED QPF TOTALS
ANYWHERE FROM 0.00-0.05" ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND 0.05-0.15" IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONTINUED MONITORING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NEEDED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE CORE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/ SOUTHERN ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S - HIGH
80S. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE EJECTING INTO
WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE PLAINS. AFTERWARDS THE DESERT SW H5
HEIGHTS WILL THEN BE ABLE TO STEADILY CLIMB, LEADING TO A STEADY
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE LOW 90S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0530Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE METRO TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 8-11 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON A FULL E/SE WIND SHIFT
AT KPHX. INSTEAD, WINDS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH SOME VARIABILITY BEFORE
RETURNING FULLY OUT OF THE WEST BY 16Z-17Z. SPEED WILL BE LIGHTER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
N-NW WINDS HAVE RELAXED AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS CURRENTLY
AROUND 7-8 KTS. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, MINOR
LLWS COULD DEVELOP AT KBLH, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 11-15Z FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTS WILL PICK UP AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING,
REACHING 20-25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DRY DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT PASSING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BRINGING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ENTRENCHED BETWEEN
10-15% THROUGH SUNDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30-50% RANGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE, LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEFORE A POTENTIAL SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN
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