635
FXUS65 KPSR 062021
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
121 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY
- HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH CONSISTENT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
MAKE THEIR RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
MEANWHILE, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FINDS ITSELF IN A BIT OF A
TRANSITION ZONE AS THE PREVIOSULY-MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO
EJECT EASTWARD. HOWEVER, AS THIS DISTURBANCE MIGRATES AWAY FROM THE
REGION, A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW AND DIG FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, EVENTUALLY SETTLING
AS A CUT-OFF LOW. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS AROUND THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTWARD. GUSTS 25- 35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS FOCUSED OVER
ENHANCED TERRAIN FEATURES. GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ACHIEVING
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
PORTIONS OF SE CALIFORNIA FOR SATURDAY MORNING HOURS.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKELY TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR SIT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. LOWER DESERT
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S,
RIGHT AROUND AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS AND SAGS FURTHER SOUTH, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING FOR A BUM UP IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WHEN MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
STALL IN THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AS THIS CUT-OFF
REMAINS STATIONARY TO THE REGION'S SW, IT WILL ALLOW H5 HEIGHTS
ALOFT TO INCREASE TO AROUND 570-573 DAM OVER THE LOWER DESERTS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE RELIEF AS SKIES WILL
ALSO REMAIN CLEAR. RESULTING IN MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, WITH MANY MODELS NOW
PUSHING THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS PROJECTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW (20-30%) WITH EXPECTED QPF TOTALS
ANYWHERE FROM 0.00-0.05" ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND 0.05-0.15" IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONTINUED MONITORING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NEEDED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE CORE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/ SOUTHERN ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S - HIGH
80S. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE EJECTING INTO
WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE PLAINS. AFTERWARDS THE DESERT SW H5
HEIGHTS WILL THEN BE ABLE TO STEADILY CLIMB, LEADING TO A STEADY
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE LOW 90S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1755Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE ONLY WEATHER ISSUE THAT WILL EXIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS SUSTAINED
AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS ESTABLISHING OUT OF
THE EAST OVERNIGHT, THEN EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE EASTERLY GUSTS TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 16-19Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF THE GUSTS BUT AT LEAST REACHING A 15-20 KT RANGE FOR
A TIME. SKC SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS DECKS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE
UNDER PERIODS OF FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECKS AND OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY GUSTS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT THE
TERMINALS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER AT KBLH (20-25 KTS) THAN
KIPL (15-20 KTS) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
THAT GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH NORTHEAST SATURDAY MID MORNING. IF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT
OF DECOUPLING OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MODEST
LLWS CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
VERY LOW ON LLWS MEETING CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING IN THE TAF. DURING
PERIODS OF STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS, HAZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO LOFTED DUST, BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS BELOW 10SM.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DRY DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT PASSING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BRINGING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ENTRENCHED BETWEEN
10-15% THROUGH SUNDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30-50% RANGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE, LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEFORE A POTENTIAL SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ560-561-564-
568>570.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN
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