920
FXUS65 KPSR 071110
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
410 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
MONDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH CONSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MAKE THEIR RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENT RAP40 ANALYSIS OF H5 HEIGHTS SHOWS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SPLIT, AND STARTING TO DEVELOP INTO THE CUT-OFF LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OFF, TIGHTENING INTO A WELL DEVELOPED CUT-OFF LOW
THROUGHOUT TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF WILL MILDLY EFFECT TODAYS AFTERNOON
HIGHS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. BY TOMORROW THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE JUST OFF THE NW
COAST THE BAJA PENINSULA, ALLOWING FOR H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE DESERT SW
TO CLIMB NEAR 570-573 DAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S, WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
HAVING 15-25% CHANCE OF REACHING 90 DEGREES.
A RELATIVELY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTWARD. GUSTS 25- 35
MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
FOCUSED OVER ENHANCED TERRAIN FEATURES. GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
ACHIEVING GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR PORTIONS OF SE CALIFORNIA FOR SATURDAY MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT COME
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN ITS JOURNEY EASTWARDS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
PEAK MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES AROUND
180-200% OF NORMAL. MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
ALSO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA (25-35%), AND EASTERN ARIZONA INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS (45-55%). QPF TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE
TRENDED UPWARDS WITH SC AZ NOW BETWEEN 0.05-0.15" AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN 0.15-0.25".
AS THE CORE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARDS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/ SOUTHERN ARIZONA, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CUT-OFF LOW
WILL BE EJECTING INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE PLAINS. ONCE THE
LOW IS TO THE REGION'S EAST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER THE DESERT SW. WITH STRONG RIDGING MOVING IN, TEMPERATURES BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL CLIMB TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
H5 HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1110Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY ERRATIC DIRECTIONS, AND TIMING
OF WIND SHIFTS SKEWED LATER THAN USUAL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
ISSUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNDER SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS.
WHILE EAST WINDS WITH A FEW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-
20KT WILL BE COMMON, THERE IS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE OF LOCAL SW WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE AT KPHX. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A NW
COMPONENT DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNSET BEFORE REVERTING TO
THE FAVORED EAST DIRECTION.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT GUSTS 20-25KT WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE DECOUPLING AND RELAXING AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
THE CURRENT PASSING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BRINGING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN DISTRICTS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ENTRENCHED BETWEEN 10-15% THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ONLY REACH THE 30-45% RANGE. PEAK
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BEFORE A POTENTIAL SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARRIVES
MONDAY. MONDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HELP SHORTLY INCREASE MINRHS TO
BETWEEN 30-40% WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BEFORE RETURNING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ560-561-564-568>570.
SHORT TERM...RYAN/RW
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN
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