870
FXUS65 KPSR 101700
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST FRI APR 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WHILE WINDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
- A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
AND RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OFF OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT
WILL HOWEVER HELP TO BRING INCREASED WINDS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE
AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO STICK
AROUND HELPING TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS.
A SECOND EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY REACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
AND THUS IT WILL REMAIN QUITE POTENT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPROVE TODAY, BUT IT WILL LARGELY
BE ALOFT BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF DRY AIR SPREADS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE SECOND STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PULL BETTER MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION
STARTING SUNDAY, BUT AGAIN MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ALOFT. POPS
THIS WEEKEND MOSTLY STAY BELOW 10% AREAWIDE WITH AT MOST A FEW VIRGA
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER NEVADA ON SUNDAY, A
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE LEFTOVER
NEVADA SHORTWAVE ENERGY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS
COMBINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF
ARIZONA LATER ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES
AS SOME MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO POOL ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NBM POPS ARE A
BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO, BUT CHANCES ARE STILL
AT MOST 10-20% IN THE PHOENIX AREA TO 25-40% OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD PROVIDE
LITTLE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL.
MONDAY WILL ALSO BRING OUR COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, OR 6-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR RURAL AREAS
TO AS COOL AS 50 DEGREES WITHIN THE PHOENIX METRO. STARTING TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, QUASI-ZONAL
DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INITIAL SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
SETTLE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
ISSUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH
CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY
DIRECTIONS (140V220) WILL BE LIKELY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS AROUND 15KT. THE NOCTURNAL SWITCH TO
EASTERLY MAY BE DELAYED INTO THE OVERNIGHT, OR LOCALLY NOT OCCUR AT
ALL RESULTING IN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY
AT KIPL THIS EVENING UNDER PERIODS OF THICK MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS.
WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A W/SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS
MOST PRONOUNCED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT GUSTS 20-30KT WILL BE COMMON WITH KIPL POTENTIALLY PEAKING
OVER 30KT AT TIMES THIS EVENING. LOFTED DUST AND SLANTWISE VSBY
ISSUES MAY ARISE THIS EVENING, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SFC
VSBY WOULD BE AFFECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
COME FROM AN INCREASE IN WINDS STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. MINRHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-20%
BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AND PEAKING ON MONDAY AT 25-
35%. AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH QUITE COMMON ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LOWER RHS
TODAY AND EVEN SATURDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ ON MONDAY, BUT CWR WILL REMAIN LOW <10%.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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