899
FXUS65 KPSR 110017
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
517 PM MST FRI APR 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WHILE WINDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
- A COUPLE SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW THIS MORNING, WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST, CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGHING FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKS TO QUICKLY DEGRADE AS
IT TRAVERSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AREA. WHILE THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH IT
WILL HELP INCREASE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN THE LOW
90S WITH LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S.
TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND THIS INITIAL TROUGHING FEATURE IS A SECOND,
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL DIVE DOWN ALONG THE NW COAST. THIS
SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WILL TO OUR
REGION'S NORTH, HOWEVER WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IT
WILL NOT DEGRADE AS QUICKLY AS THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT MORE NOTABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO PORTIONS OF THE
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. MEANWHILE IN THE PHOENIX METRO WINDS WONT
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.
ALONG WITH BOTH OF THESE TROUGHING SYSTEMS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE WITH PWATS ALREADY INCREASED TODAY TO NEAR 150% OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER, AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM DEGRADES OVER LAND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM CAN REINTRODUCE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. POPS CONTINUE TO STAY
FAIRLY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE REGION AT OR BELOW A
10% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE VIRGA SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER NEVADA ON SUNDAY, A
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
THE LEFTOVER NEVADA SHORTWAVE ENERGY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS COMBINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF ARIZONA LATER ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES AS SOME MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NBM POPS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN
24 HOURS AGO, BUT CHANCES ARE STILL AT MOST 10-20% IN THE PHOENIX
AREA TO 25-40% OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL.
MONDAY WILL ALSO BRING OUR COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, OR 6-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR RURAL
AREAS TO AS COOL AS 50 DEGREES WITHIN THE PHOENIX METRO. STARTING
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK,
QUASI-ZONAL DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OVER OUR REGION. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INITIAL SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE TEMPERATURES SETTLE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0017Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
ISSUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CIGS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE NOCTURNAL SWITCH TO EASTERLY MAY BE DELAYED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, OR LOCALLY NOT OCCUR AT ALL RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND THIS EVENING. SHOULD E WINDS ESTABLISH
SATURDAY MORNING, THE SHIFT BACK TO W/SW WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY
17-18Z. WESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND PASS BY THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE PHOENIX METRO SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN 10-14Z,
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY
AT KIPL THIS EVENING UNDER PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF KIPL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS EAST OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A W/SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS MOST PRONOUNCED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT GUSTS 20-30KT WILL BE COMMON WITH KIPL
POTENTIALLY PEAKING OVER 30KT AT TIMES THIS EVENING. LOFTED DUST
AND SLANTWISE VSBY ISSUES MAY ARISE THIS EVENING, WITH GREATER
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SFC VSBY WOULD BE AFFECTED. SIMILAR WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
COME FROM AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS. MINRHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 10-20% BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND PEAKING ON MONDAY AT 25- 35% THEN RETURNING MOSTLY
BETWEEN 15-20% TUESDAY. AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH QUITE COMMON ON
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LOWER RHS TODAY AND EVEN SATURDAY, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ
ON MONDAY, BUT CWR WILL REMAIN LOW <10%. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE BACK OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT/18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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