648
FXUS65 KPSR 110943
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
243 AM MST SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS,
AND LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR OUR
REGION, A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED, SOME VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR
MOSTLY SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS
MARICOPA COUNTY. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
LATER THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER BATCH OF DRIER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
NOW THAT THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HAS MOSTLY MOVED INTO OUR
REGION, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE LOWER HEIGHTS,
AS HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVE INLAND REACHING NEVADA LATER ON SUNDAY. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY
OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS ALSO INCREASE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY BACKED OFF ON ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WIND GUSTS SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO
REACH 25-30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS TO AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TO CLOSER TO 85 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LATE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MERGING WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON MONDAY. THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THIS LAST SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN,
BUT FOR NOW IT IS FAVORED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA MONDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING TROUGHING LASTING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. AS WITH THE OTHER DISTURBANCES, THE
LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR RAIN
CHANCES. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MID-
LEVELS ON MONDAY, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE MARGINAL WITH
FORECAST MIXING RATIOS ONLY IN A 4-6 G/KG RANGE. CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR IS FORECAST ABOVE AND BELOW THIS 750-650MB MOISTURE LAYER, SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF
ANY RAINFALL. THE LATEST NBM POPS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY'S RUNS WITH EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT 10-15% CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS TO 20-30% OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX.
MONDAY WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM ON MONDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S, OR 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO DIP INTO THE 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
BUT LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP MOST SPOTS
FROM DIPPING BELOW THE LOW TO MID 50S.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING, DRIER
AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN A LINGERING 10-15% CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY MORNING, SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK UNDER A ZONAL TO BROAD TROUGHING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0550Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
SWITCH TO EASTERLY AT KPHX IS EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED OVERNIGHT,
AND INSTEAD THERE WILL LIKELY BY PERIODS OF CALM AND VRB. IF
EASTERLY FLOW DOES BECOME ESTABLISH, IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE W/SW BY 15Z-17Z. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE AT ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND PASS BY THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
PHOENIX METRO SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN 10-14Z, WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED. FEW TO SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT KIPL. WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND KIPL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT KBLH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT KIPL, BUT
WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT GUSTS 20-30 KT WILL BECOME COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A MODERATE CHANCE OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 KTS AT KIPL BY SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED HUMIDITIES. MINRHS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOSTLY AVERAGE
15-25%, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IMPROVE INTO A FAIR TO GOOD
RANGE (40-70%). WINDS WILL SOMEWHAT FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS, BUT
WITH MORE OF A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS WINDS
INCREASE AREAWIDE. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ENHANCED
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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