360
FXUS65 KPSR 120029
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
529 PM MST SAT APR 11 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS,
AND LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGHING FEATURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
THE CORE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND DRY AIR WILL FILTER BACK
INTO OUR REGION BEHIND A SEPARATE, WEAKER SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH BROUGHT VIRGA AND AREAS OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY. WITH DRIER AIR
ENTERING THE REGION, TODAY WILL BE CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER DESERT AREAS.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND, TIGHTENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BE UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
OTHERWISE, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE REINTRODUCED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
STEADILY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY'S AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AND INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LATE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MERGING WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON MONDAY. THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THIS LAST SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN,
BUT FOR NOW IT IS FAVORED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA MONDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING TROUGHING LASTING THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. AS WITH THE OTHER DISTURBANCES, THE
LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR RAIN
CHANCES. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MID-
LEVELS ON MONDAY, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE MARGINAL WITH
FORECAST MIXING RATIOS ONLY IN A 4-6 G/KG RANGE. CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR IS FORECAST ABOVE AND BELOW THIS 750-650MB MOISTURE LAYER, SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF
ANY RAINFALL. THE LATEST NBM POPS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY'S RUNS WITH EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT 10-15% CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS TO 20-30% OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX.
MONDAY WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM ON MONDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S, OR 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO DIP INTO THE 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
BUT LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP MOST SPOTS
FROM DIPPING BELOW THE LOW TO MID 50S.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING, DRIER
AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN A LINGERING 10-15% CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY MORNING, SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK UNDER A ZONAL TO BROAD TROUGHING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0020Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL TEND TO
FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KT WITH THE GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT KBLH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS OF 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN A
LITTLE BIT TO 10-15 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS, 0500-1800, IS EXPECTED AT KBLH VS
A SHORTER PERIOD, 0900-1300, AT KIPL. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED HUMIDITIES. MINRHS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOSTLY
AVERAGE 15-25%, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IMPROVE INTO A FAIR TO
GOOD RANGE (40-70%). WINDS WILL SOMEWHAT FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS,
BUT WITH MORE OF A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS WINDS
INCREASE AREAWIDE. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ENHANCED
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A DISTURBANCE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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