333
FXUS65 KPSR 121128
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
428 AM MST SUN APR 12 2026
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS
LATE MONDAY RAIN CHANCES.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF THREE WEATHER SYSTEMS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WIND GUSTS COMMONLY REACHING 20-30
MPH. DRIER AIR REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL TOO FAR REMOVED TO THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE QUICKLY WEAKENING TODAY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE A THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT. ASIDE
FROM THE INCREASED WINDS TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
AT MOST REACH INTO THE NORMAL RANGE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. TODAY SHOULD BE OUR COOLEST DAY
SINCE AROUND MARCH 11TH.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, A COMBINATION OF THE SECOND AND THIRD
PIECES OF ENERGY. LIKE TODAY, MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER BREEZY
TO WINDY DAY, BUT WITH THE PV ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR RAIN CHANCES, BUT MODELS HAVE AT LEAST MAINTAINED OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES WITH THE LATEST RUN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER CENTERED
AROUND 10K FEET, BUT LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LAYER.
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, BUT EVEN GOOD
A PORTION OF THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD RECEIVE SOME TRACE AMOUNTS
FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH 10-15%
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA, 20-30%
WITHIN PHOENIX, TO AS HIGH AS 40-50% OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY WITH ANY LIMITED LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY CARRYING OVER INTO TUESDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S, OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY QUIET, BUT A MOSTLY DRY
PACIFIC TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TRACK BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE IN
THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT FOR NOW HAS IT TRACKING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
IT IS QUITE UNLIKELY IT WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANCES, BUT WE
VERY WELL COULD GET ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE NBM HAS ALSO RESPONDED BY DROPPING
HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST
LONG AS INCOMING RIDGING FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH READINGS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1120Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN,
EXPECT MORE OF A S-SE COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A SWITCH BACK TO W-SW AROUND 17Z-18Z. SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BECOMING SCT-BKN WITH BASES AOA 12 KFT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VIRGA SHOWERS THIS EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 00Z, BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY
AT KIPL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CALM AND VRB WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBLH EARLY
THIS MORNING. INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS WILL
BECOME COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL
INTO THE EVENING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEK RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HUMIDITIES. MINRHS THROUGH MONDAY WILL MOSTLY
AVERAGE 20-25% WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70%. WINDS WILL
SOMEWHAT FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS, BUT WITH MORE OF A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS OF
25-35 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT CWR WILL REMAIN BELOW
10%. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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