413
FXUS65 KPSR 122358
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
458 PM MST SUN APR 12 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS
LATE MONDAY RAIN CHANCES.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS WITH
THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM NOW CURRENTLY ON SHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFONRIA. ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SW FROM THE SW. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SKIES TODAY BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR REGION'S NORTH BUT HAS TIGHTENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DESERT SW, CONTINUING THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE HIGHER TERRAINS, GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
BY THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND WEAKEN. MEANWHILE, A THIRD
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, REACHING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SYSTEM BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND WILL BRING PWAT
ANOMALIES TO NEAR 200% OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE DESERT SW A DECENT AMOUNT OF PV ENERGY WILL OVER THE REGION,
WHICH CAN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING, WITH POPS BETWEEN 10-15% OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA, 20-30% WITHIN PHOENIX, TO AS HIGH
AS 40-50% OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY WITH ANY LIMITED LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY CARRYING OVER INTO TUESDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S, OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY QUIET, BUT A MOSTLY DRY
PACIFIC TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TRACK BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE IN
THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT FOR NOW HAS IT TRACKING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
IT IS QUITE UNLIKELY IT WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANCES, BUT WE
VERY WELL COULD GET ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE NBM HAS ALSO RESPONDED BY DROPPING
HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST
LONG AS INCOMING RIDGING FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH READINGS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2355Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY
THROUGH MOST OF, IF NOT ALL, OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN A
E/SE SWITCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IS LOW. IN
FACT IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM EVERY TAF SITE EXCEPT KIWA, WHERE A
SE/S DIRECTION REMAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SOME SCT CLOUDS AS LOW AS 9K FEET. VIRGA AND A FEW SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KIPL AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIE
OFF, WITH NO GUSTS EXPECTED, AT KBLH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 8-13 KT. SCT-BKN
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEK RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HUMIDITIES. MINRHS THROUGH MONDAY WILL MOSTLY
AVERAGE 20-25% WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70%. WINDS WILL
SOMEWHAT FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS, BUT WITH MORE OF A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS OF
25-35 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT CWR WILL REMAIN BELOW
10%. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE BACK OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/FRIEDERS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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