772
FXUS65 KPSR 130838
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
138 AM MST MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN U.S., WHILE TWO PIECES OF PV ENERGY
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF COMBINING OVER CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. AS WE DRY OUT IN THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY, THE
CONSOLIDATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST AHEAD AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS
SHOULD MOSTLY REACH BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. AS THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN
PV CENTER SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT, HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO THE BULK OF LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL AT
MOST SEE A TRACE WHILE THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PHOENIX METRO TO AS COOL AS
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME CLEAR BY LATE EVENING. TUESDAY'S WEATHER SHOULD BE THE PICK
OF THE WEEK AS THE COOL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET DAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. A ROBUST
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ALSO
WEAKENING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY CLIP ARIZONA, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS SO FAR KEEP ANY SYSTEM ENERGY AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEKEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING A
RETURN OF HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY, THIS
WARM UP MAY BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS GUIDANCE MOSTLY FAVORS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT SOME POINT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0550Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT AN S-SE SWITCH WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND HAS BEEN ADDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BLO 10 KT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SW BY
15Z-17Z WITH GUSTS UPPER TO 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BASES AS LOW AS 10 KFT. VIRGA AND A FEW SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY AT KIPL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT KBLH THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT KIPL,
AND REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 12 KTS AT KBLH. BY MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY,
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS WILL BECOME COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNRISE, HOWEVER A CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 8 KFT.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR MOSTLY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS, BUT CWR WILL
BE LESS THAN 10%. TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MINRHS TODAY WILL RISE TO 25-30% BEFORE LOWERING TO 15-25% TUESDAY
AND 10-15% STARTING WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR FULLY ENCOMPASSES THE
REGION. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LOW HUMIDITIES
AND THE INCREASED WINDS LATE WEEK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page