455
FXUS65 KPSR 131120
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST MON APR 13 2026
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN U.S., WHILE TWO PIECES OF PV ENERGY
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF COMBINING OVER CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. AS WE DRY OUT IN THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY, THE
CONSOLIDATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST AHEAD AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS
SHOULD MOSTLY REACH BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. AS THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN
PV CENTER SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT, HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO THE BULK OF LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL AT
MOST SEE A TRACE WHILE THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PHOENIX METRO TO AS COOL AS
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME CLEAR BY LATE EVENING. TUESDAY'S WEATHER SHOULD BE THE PICK
OF THE WEEK AS THE COOL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET DAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. A ROBUST
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ALSO
WEAKENING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY CLIP ARIZONA, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS SO FAR KEEP ANY SYSTEM ENERGY AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEKEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING A
RETURN OF HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY, THIS
WARM UP MAY BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS GUIDANCE MOSTLY FAVORS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT SOME POINT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1120Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE A PROLONGED
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN,
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION
BACK OUT OF THE W-SW BY 15Z-17Z. SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KTS. A
PERIOD OF HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BASES
AS LOW AS 8-10 KFT. VIRGA AND A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KIPL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT KIPL, AND REMAIN GENERALLY
AOB 12 KTS AT KBLH. BY MID-AFTERNOON, GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS WILL
BECOME COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNRISE, HOWEVER A CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 7-8 KFT.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR MOSTLY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS, BUT CWR WILL
BE LESS THAN 10%. TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MINRHS TODAY WILL RISE TO 25-30% BEFORE LOWERING TO 15-25% TUESDAY
AND 10-15% STARTING WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR FULLY ENCOMPASSES THE
REGION. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LOW HUMIDITIES
AND THE INCREASED WINDS LATE WEEK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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