257
FXUS65 KPSR 131825
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1125 AM MST MON APR 13 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN U.S., WHILE TWO PIECES OF PV ENERGY
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF COMBINING OVER CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO A SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. AS WE DRY OUT IN THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY, THE
CONSOLIDATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE FOCUSING JUST AHEAD AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS
SHOULD MOSTLY REACH BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. AS THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN
PV CENTER SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT, HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO THE BULK OF LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL AT
MOST SEE A TRACE WHILE THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DIP WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PHOENIX METRO TO AS COOL AS
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME CLEAR BY LATE EVENING. TUESDAY'S WEATHER SHOULD BE THE PICK
OF THE WEEK AS THE COOL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET DAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. A ROBUST
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ALSO
WEAKENING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY CLIP ARIZONA, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS SO FAR KEEP ANY SYSTEM ENERGY AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEKEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING A
RETURN OF HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY, THIS
WARM UP MAY BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS GUIDANCE MOSTLY FAVORS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT SOME POINT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1825Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, REGIONAL
VIRGA MAY CAUSE SOME SUDDEN AND STRONG WIND SHIFTS. IF THIS WERE
TO BE REALIZED AT ONE OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS, IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS IN BLDU MAY BE
OBSERVED
A NARROW WINDOW OF HIGHER GUSTS (25+ KT) WILL BE SEEN EARLY
TONIGHT AS A FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION BUT WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CALM INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY, BUT THE THE TIMING IS TOO SHORT AND POTENTIAL TOO LOW
TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SHRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
THE LOWEST BASES AROUND 6-8 KFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W'RLY AND SW'RLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED
THROUGH TONIGHT AT KIPL AND KBLH RESPECTIVELY. GUSTS 20-30 KTS
WILL BE COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPEEDS EVENTUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SCT TO POTENTIALLY
BKN BASES AROUND 7-8 KFT WILL BE OBSERVED DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR MOSTLY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS, BUT CWR WILL
BE LESS THAN 10%. TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MINRHS TODAY WILL RISE TO 25-30% BEFORE LOWERING TO 15-25% TUESDAY
AND 10-15% STARTING WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR FULLY ENCOMPASSES THE
REGION. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY WEDNESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LOW HUMIDITIES
AND THE INCREASED WINDS LATE WEEK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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