465
FXUS65 KPSR 132038
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
138 PM MST MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW.
FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGHING FEATURE IS ANOTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
AND IS DIVING DOWN CALIFORNIA'S COAST, MOVING CLOSER TO THE
DESERT SW. HOWEVER, A PATCH OF DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE REGIONS WEST, WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE UPPER
LEVELS AS IT PUSHES INLAND ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
STARTING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP HOWEVER WILL BE FIGHTING
AGAINST A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, SO MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS WILL AT
MOST SEE A TRACE WHILE THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN MAY RECEIVE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN LOCALIZED AREAS. AS
THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, WITH
PERIODS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WHERE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THANKS TO THESE SYSTEMS, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
BY TOMORROW, SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARDS,
WHILE THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR THE PHOENIX AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET DAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. A ROBUST
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE ALSO
WEAKENING. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY CLIP ARIZONA, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS SO FAR KEEP ANY SYSTEM ENERGY AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WHILE ALSO LEADING TO A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEKEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING A
RETURN OF HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY, THIS
WARM UP MAY BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS GUIDANCE MOSTLY FAVORS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT SOME POINT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1825Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, REGIONAL
VIRGA MAY CAUSE SOME SUDDEN AND STRONG WIND SHIFTS. IF THIS WERE
TO BE REALIZED AT ONE OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS, IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS IN BLDU MAY BE
OBSERVED
A NARROW WINDOW OF HIGHER GUSTS (25+ KT) WILL BE SEEN EARLY
TONIGHT AS A FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION BUT WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CALM INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY, BUT THE THE TIMING IS TOO SHORT AND POTENTIAL TOO LOW
TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SHRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
THE LOWEST BASES AROUND 6-8 KFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W'RLY AND SW'RLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED
THROUGH TONIGHT AT KIPL AND KBLH RESPECTIVELY. GUSTS 20-30 KTS
WILL BE COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPEEDS EVENTUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SCT TO POTENTIALLY
BKN BASES AROUND 7-8 KFT WILL BE OBSERVED DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH CHANCES FOR MOSTLY HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS, BUT CWR WILL BE LESS THAN 10%. TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MINRHS TODAY WILL RISE TO 25-30% BEFORE
LOWERING TO 15-25% TUESDAY AND 10-15% STARTING WEDNESDAY AS DRY
AIR FULLY ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE
NORMAL RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, BUT A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND THE INCREASED WINDS LATE WEEK MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/RYAN
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