382
FXUS65 KPSR 141122
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
422 AM MST TUE APR 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUAL WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID NINETIES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERING FROM NORTH PHOENIX INTO THE MOGOLLON RIM. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COOLER POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS WILL HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS TO AT MOST THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO AT
LEAST THE MID 80S, OR WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE. DRYING CONDITIONS
LATER TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO SURFACE DEW POINTS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BY THURSDAY, A LARGE PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LEADING TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER OUR REGION AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO DIP ON FRIDAY AS THE NBM/WPC SHOWS HIGHS BACK INTO A
80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
STRONGER RIDGING IS THEN FAVORED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND PUSHING DAYTIME HIGHS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO A 90-95 DEGREE RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH CREATING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1120Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
SPOTTY -SHRA ACTIVITY LINGERS MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PHOENIX
AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SKIES CLEARING WEST TO EAST.
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO FAVOR A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 8-10 KTS AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF VARIABILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND 17Z,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A FULL EASTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR THIS MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH OUT
OF THEIR TYPICAL NOCTURNAL E/SE DIRECTIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CUMULUS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS, UNDER SKC SKIES. CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTIONS IS LOW AT KBLH, THOUGH A NORTH/NORTHEAST COMPONENT
LOOKS TO BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL WILL VARY
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH PERIODS OF VARIABILITY,
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A PERIOD WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KIPL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY LINGERING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. MINRHS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 15-20% TODAY
AND 10-15% ON WEDNESDAY AS OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BECOME POOR TO
FAIR STARTING TONIGHT AT 30-50%. ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM
LATE WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND EVEN LOWER RHS
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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