129
FXUS65 KPSR 141945
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1245 PM MST TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK PROVIDING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE BACK
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOCUSED AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
- WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGHING HAS BEGUN TO PUSH OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE NOW LOCATED NEAR THE
COLORADO/UTAH BORDER. HOWEVER, THE TRAILING AXIS STILL EXTENDS
DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF ARIZONA, KEEPING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVERHEAD. THIS COOLER AIRMASS, COMBINED THE DRY AIR THAT MOVED IN
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A VERY PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE REGION HAS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO
HIGHS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM,
PROVIDING AT LEAST A MODEST WARM UP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. AFTERNOON READINGS FOR LOWER
DESERT LOCALES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY OUT IN SE CALIFORNIA SEEING A RETURN TO
THE 90S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BY THURSDAY, A LARGE PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LEADING TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER OUR REGION AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO DIP ON FRIDAY AS THE NBM/WPC SHOWS HIGHS BACK INTO A
80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
STRONGER RIDGING IS THEN FAVORED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND PUSHING DAYTIME HIGHS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO A 90-95 DEGREE RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH CREATING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1728Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS TODAY
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KTS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. EASTERLY SHIFT IS
EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. KIPL WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, GOING VRB BY THE EVENING HOURS THEN QUICKLY
SETTLING BACK OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND KBLH
WILL BE MOSTLY VRB WITH A PERIOD OF NNE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY LINGERING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. MINRHS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 15-20% TODAY
AND 10-15% ON WEDNESDAY AS OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BECOME POOR TO
FAIR STARTING TONIGHT AT 30-50%. ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM
LATE WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND EVEN LOWER RHS
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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