950
FXUS65 KPSR 151929
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1229 PM MST WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE BACK
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOCUSED AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
- AFTER A BRIEF STINT OF NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, READINGS WILL REBOUND, WITH WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL MULTIPLE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER FLOW. MEANWHILE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. AFTER YESTERDAY,
WHEN WE SAW OUR FIRST DAY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MARCH, AND ONLY THE 11TH SUCH DAY THIS YEAR,
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK UPWARDS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE
WARMER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. LOWER DESERT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
LOCALES CAN EXPECT VALUES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH, CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON, WILL WORK ITS WAY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, TRAVERSING THE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME MINOR
INFLUENCES ON OUR WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TIGHTEN OUR REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY, AND THE SOUTHERN
LOW THROWS SOME UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME MARGINAL BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH PEAK GUSTS
20-25 MPH, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED MOISTURE WILL
YIELD ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER, BUT THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW OPTICALLY THICK IT BECOMES. CURRENT
NBM HIGHS CALL FOR READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF TEMPERATURES UNDERACHIEVE
DUE TO THE LOWER INSOLATION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK
OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WINDY CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY WHILE ALSO RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOME SPOTS
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE
FRIDAY, AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS MOSTLY UNDER 25 MPH. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY
HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTS
ANOTHER PASSING RIDGE WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS RIDGE WILL LAST
A BIT LONGER AND HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. THE WEEKEND
SHOWS VERY LOW RHS WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WHILE TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES THEN FAVOR A DEEP PACIFIC LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN OR EVEN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS, THE SYSTEM WOULD LOWER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1732Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW DIURNAL TENDENCIES ACROSS THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 8 KTS. ACROSS SE CA,
WINDS WILL FAVOR A S-SE COMPONENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE W/SW THIS EVENING; EXPECT SPEEDS TO MOSTLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABILITY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PICK UP HEADING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SKC
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO A NORMAL RANGE. WINDS TODAY WILL
AGAIN BE LIGHT WHILE MINRHS FALL TO 10-15%. THURSDAY WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MINRHS THURSDAY WILL ALSO
FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS ON FRIDAY
ARE LIKELY TO BRING ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES,
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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