912
FXUS65 KPSR 152300
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 PM MST WED APR 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOCUSED AROUND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
- AFTER A BRIEF STINT OF NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, READINGS WILL REBOUND WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 90S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL MULTIPLE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER FLOW. MEANWHILE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. AFTER YESTERDAY,
WHEN WE SAW OUR FIRST DAY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MARCH, AND ONLY THE 11TH SUCH DAY THIS YEAR,
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK UPWARDS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE
WARMER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. LOWER DESERT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LOCALES
CAN EXPECT VALUES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH, CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON, WILL WORK ITS WAY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, TRAVERSING THE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME MINOR
INFLUENCES ON OUR WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TIGHTEN OUR REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY, AND THE SOUTHERN
LOW THROWS SOME UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME MARGINAL BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH PEAK GUSTS
20-25 MPH, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED MOISTURE WILL
YIELD ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER, BUT THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW OPTICALLY THICK IT BECOMES. CURRENT
NBM HIGHS CALL FOR READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER,
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF TEMPERATURES UNDERACHIEVE DUE TO THE
LOWER INSOLATION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD STILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
FRIDAY WHILE ALSO RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. WIND GUSTS
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL IN SOME SPOTS BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRIDAY,
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
UNDER 25 MPH. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY HAVE ACTUALLY
DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTS
ANOTHER PASSING RIDGE WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS RIDGE WILL LAST A
BIT LONGER AND HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. THE WEEKEND
SHOWS VERY LOW RHS WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WHILE TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES THEN FAVOR A DEEP PACIFIC LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN OR EVEN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS, THE SYSTEM WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO
RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2300Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING UNDER
INCREASING CIRRUS DECKS. TRENDS AND TIMING OF DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHIFTS WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
SPEEDS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20KT
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO A NORMAL RANGE. WINDS TODAY WILL AGAIN
BE LIGHT WHILE MINRHS FALL TO 10-15%. THURSDAY WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MINRHS THURSDAY WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS ON FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO
BRING ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES, EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS, BUT LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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