210
FXUS65 KPSR 180545
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST FRI APR 17 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE NINETIES BY SUNDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY, AND TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG EASTERLY
GRADIENT WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A TROUGH THAT PASSED BY TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING, AND IS NOW
SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES, HELPED PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SAME AREA, DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN, HAS LED TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE RIVER. WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1300MST/PDT. THE BLYTHE AIRPORT MEASURED A
PEAK WIND GUST OF 60 MPH THIS MORNING, THE HIGHEST IN THE AREA,
BUT GUSTS ARE NOW DOWN TO AROUND 25-35 MPH ALONG THE RIVER AND
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION PARTS OF SE CA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ARE NOTABLY LIGHTER ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ.
THE PASSING TROUGH ALSO HELPED COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY,
WITH MIDDAY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-5F COOLER THAN THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RIGHT AT TO A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW DAILY NORMALS, WITH LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE
DEPARTING TROUGH, WHICH MEANS NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. HEIGHT
RISES WILL TRANSLATE TO A RAPID WARMING OF TEMPERATURES, WITH THE
LATEST NBM FORECAST SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AT
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT LOWS WILL ALSO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING MAY ALSO KEEP MORNING TEMPERATURES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN NOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS PROGRESSION WILL
INITIALLY LEAD TO SOME BREEZY NE WINDS SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AZ AND THEN A STRONGER EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH IN THE PLAINS. HI-RES AND GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING AN ABNORMALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH MOUNTAIN AND RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS PUSHING 40-50 MPH
EAST OF PHOENIX. THE BREEZY EASTERLIES SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AFTER SUNRISE, BUT WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
PEAKING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED, HOWEVER, SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH, WITH WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
REVEALING DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING AND THE N/S DISPLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INLAND. THE UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL REFLECTED IN THE PROBABILISTIC NBM TEMPERATURES, AS IQRS
FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS INCREASE TO 5F OR GREATER WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT CLOSER TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES
ROTATING ABOUT THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE (MOSTLY IN THE MID LEVELS) TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF AZ. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA REMAINING DRY, WITH POPS BELOW 10%.
REGARDLESS, THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RESULT IN
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY PERIOD DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0545Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A LATER THAN USUAL EASTERLY
SHIFT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT (~09-10Z). WIND SPEEDS WILL
MOSTLY BE AOB 10KTS. HOWEVER, LATE TOMORROW MORNING GUSTS BETWEEN
15-20KTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15-18Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
TO FILTER IN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL,
WINDS WILL BE AOB 6 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND FAVOR A W/N
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY. AT KBLH, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NW DIRECTION
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT FAVOR AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO FILTER IN
TOMORROW EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA, WHERE VERY DRY
AIR IS COMBINING WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE WINDS HAVE AT
LEAST SUBSIDED FROM THIS MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
FOLLOW MOST DAYS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER, GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH, ON SATURDAY, AND THEN A STRONG
EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. STILL, SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
EXIST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINRHS BELOW 15% AND AT TIMES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH MINOR DAY TO
DAY VARIATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF THIS
WEEKEND, WITH VALUES COMMONLY BETWEEN 10-30% (ON THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS).
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM..BENEDICT
LONG TERM...WHITTOCK
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/WHITTOCK
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