585
FXUS65 KPSR 191022
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
322 AM MST SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY
NORMALS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A STRONG SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
INDUCE E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT, EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH HAVE ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE GLOBE/MIAMI AND SAN CARLOS AREAS WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL TAKE EFFECT BEGINNING AT 3 AM MST. WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY PEAK JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, REACHING UP TO
20-30 MPH ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND UP TO 40-50 MPH IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF PHOENIX. BLOWING/LOFTED DUST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
LINGERING GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH MAY CARRY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND THUS THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRATION TIME HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 1 PM MST. ANOTHER ATTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF VIRGA
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF INCREASING MID-LVL CLOUDS. HREF
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THESE VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING NWD INTO THE PHOENIX METRO
THIS EVENING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, UPPER-LVL RIDGING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER-LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD AS A
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF N CALIFORNIA. THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL STILL BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH 500
MB HGHTS RANGING FROM 578-580 DAM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
IN AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID 90S. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH AZ ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LVL WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACROSS THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER THE LOWER DESERTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
WHERE OUR FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH
OFF THE COAST OF CA AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE S PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING FOR AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA WHERE GUSTS
COULD REACH 20-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
FINALLY PUSH INLAND OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ALBEIT IN A
WEAKENING PHASE. ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEGATIVE HGHT ANOMALIES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES (LIKELY CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS,
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS) BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
OF THE 500-700 MB HGHT GRADIENT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AZ ON
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT BOOST IN TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
OF WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT E/NE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZING
SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY FLIRT WITH LLWS CRITERIA AROUND
SUNRISE, AS WELL AS BECOMING CONDUCIVE TOWARDS IMPORTING LOFTED DUST
AND CREATING SLANTWISE VSBY ISSUES. AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIODS OF 20-
30KT GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, SPEEDS SHOULD
RELAX MID/LATE AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME W/NW FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND A E/SE COMPONENT MAY
HOLD ACROSS THE METRO.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER
INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS
MODERATE WITH A W/NW COMPONENT FAVORED AT KIPL AND VARYING BETWEEN
NW AND S AT KBLH. EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER ARRIVES MID-WEEK.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
RESIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL AZ WHERE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35-45 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH WILL ALSO
BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY OF STRONGEST WINDS, RH VALUES WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY BEFORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15% AND AT TIMES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ALSO VARY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 30-50% RANGE. DUE TO THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS,
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ547-552-555-
557-558-560>563.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM..SALERNO
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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