829
FXUS65 KPSR 292355
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 PM MST WED APR 29 2026
UPDATE
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL TURN HOTTER GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS INTO THE NINETIES AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY.
- A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY HAS
TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
ANALYSIS OF THE NAM AND HRRR SHOWS THE CUT-OFF LOW SHEARING APART
AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAJA. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST. HIGHS WILL
HOVER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. EXPECT HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS
TO PERSIST.
FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE MID-LEVELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY WITH LARGE
T/TD SPREADS. BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z HRRR RUNS SHOW ALMOST ZERO
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FOR THE CWA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED TO <5% FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO VIRGA OR A FEW "DRY" SPRINKLES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES (~5%) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSE LOW WILL BE EXITING TO THE REGION'S EAST, BUT
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SW.
EVEN WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIAN COAST, WHICH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SW DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MODELS POINT
TOWARDS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RETURN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER TERRAIN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2355Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW LIGHT AND DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCT-
BKN SKIES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF SOME CLEARING
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SE AZ, OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AIRSPACE, BUT SOME
VIRGA/WEAK RADAR ECHOES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. KIWA WOULD
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SORT OF RAINFALL ACTIVITY,
BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW (<10%) TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANYTHING
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB CONDITIONS, A W'RLY COMPONENT
SHOULD BE FAVORED AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT IPL DURING A BRIEF WINDOW
(02-06Z) THIS EVENING. SCT TO PERHAPS BKN SKIES WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE
TONIGHT. SCT DECKS AROUND 12-15K FT WILL EMERGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, FOLLOWING DIURNAL
TRENDS, WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH. MINRH
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 25-40% TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 10-15%
ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MAXRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 25-60%. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...95/RYAN
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