217
FXUS65 KPSR 300947
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
247 AM MST THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL TURN HOTTER GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS INTO THE NINETIES AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY.
- A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW TO
THE REGION'S SW, OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE TO OUR SOUTH, ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO,
RESULTING IN RAINFALL CHANCES TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSING
OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ANY ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES (5-10%) OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE TO THE REGION'S SE, THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SHOW
STRONG OUTFLOWS REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING, AND
COULD LAST UP TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CAN LEAD TO WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH AND AREAS OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS, AND IN THE MID 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. BY FRIDAY
THE CLOSE LOW WILL BE EXITING TO THE REGION'S EAST, AND RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. WITH RIDGING TO THE REGION'S
WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WITH THE WESTERN PORTIONS LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE MID 90S RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO FORM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS NEXT CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY RETURN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER TERRAIN RAIN CHANCES. CONTINUED MONITORING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0525Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS WILL EXIST DURING THE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AFTER THE PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST. BASES AROUND 10-15 KFT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SE AZ, OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AIRSPACE, BUT SOME
VIRGA/WEAK RADAR ECHOES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. KIWA WOULD
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SORT OF RAINFALL ACTIVITY,
BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW (<10%) TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANYTHING
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A DISTANT OUTFLOW MAY REACH
METRO TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST WINDOW THAT COULD GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THIS FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT A TEMPO GROUP HAS
BEEN ADDED FOR KPHX AND KIWA FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO REFLECT THE
RELATIVE POTENTIAL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY EVENING AT KIPL WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THIS, WINDS AT EACH
TERMINAL SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM, BEFORE FEW MID-LEVEL BASES AROUND
12 KFT DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MINRH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 10-15% TODAY BEFORE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 15-20% OVER THE WEEKEND. MAXRH VALUES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30-60% BEFORE DECREASING
SLIGHTLY TO 20-50% OVER THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...95/RYAN
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