829
FXUS65 KPSR 011107
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
407 AM MST FRI MAY 1 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME COMMON THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD
OFF THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE NINETIES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A COOLDOWN BACK INTO THE
EIGHTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW, THAT PASSED
TO THE REGION'S SE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING, IS NOW CENTERED OVER
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO.
MEANWHILE, RIDGING CAN BE SEEN BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND
WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND STARTING TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER IN
RESPONSE TO H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 576-580 DAM ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS ILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, OR ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY SUNDAY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
DESERT SW UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
IN SW ARIZONA AND SE CALIFORNIA WILL DEVELOP. DURING THIS TIME GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
LA PAZ COUNTY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INLAND AND MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARDS DOWN THE STATE OF
CALIFORNIA BEFORE MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL HELP KICK
OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY MID
WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THIS CLOSED LOW WILL
EXIT THE REGION OR IF IT SIMPLY WEAKENS AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
BUILD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THIS NEXT CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM APPROACHING, MODELS CURRENTLY POINT TOWARDS CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY AND A WARMING TREND BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1105Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL
EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WHILE AT KBLH WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS,
HOWEVER, EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT VARIABILITY TO EVEN CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD DECKS MOVE IN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM NEAR NORMAL INTO A
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TODAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND
FROM OFF THE CA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES MAY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DISTRICTS INCLUDING THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MOST NOTABLY ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINRHS IN
A 8-15% RANGE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASING SLIGHTLY
INTO A 10-20% RANGE SUNDAY AND 15-25% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL DECREASE AREAWIDE TONIGHT INTO A 20-50%
RANGE AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN/WHITTOCK
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK
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