001
FXUS65 KPSR 011726
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1025 AM MST FRI MAY 1 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME COMMON THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE NINETIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A COOLDOWN BACK INTO THE EIGHTIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW, THAT PASSED TO
THE REGION'S SE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING, IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO.
MEANWHILE, RIDGING CAN BE SEEN BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL
MOVE FURTHER INLAND STARTING TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER IN RESPONSE
TO H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 576-580 DAM ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS ILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, OR ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY SUNDAY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
DESERT SW UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN SW ARIZONA AND SE CALIFORNIA WILL DEVELOP. DURING THIS
TIME GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND LA PAZ COUNTY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INLAND AND MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARDS DOWN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF THE WORK
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY MID WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST DECREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THIS CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION OR IF IT
SIMPLY WEAKENS AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THIS NEXT CLOSED LOW SYSTEM APPROACHING, MODELS
CURRENTLY POINT TOWARDS CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY AND A WARMING TREND
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1725Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY
EARLIER THAN NORMAL TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15KT. AFTER
THE TYPICAL SHIFT TO EAST OVERNIGHT, SOME ENHANCEMENT IN SPEEDS AND
GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MID/LATE MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN GUST MAGNITUDE AND DURATION IS LOW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. WHILE PROLONGED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON, A PREDOMINANT LIGHT WESTERLY FETCH WILL BE FAVORED AT KIPL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHILE A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE FAVORED AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM NEAR NORMAL INTO A
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TODAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FROM
OFF THE CA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES MAY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DISTRICTS INCLUDING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MOST NOTABLY ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINRHS IN A 8-15% RANGE
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO A 10-20%
RANGE SUNDAY AND 15-25% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL DECREASE AREAWIDE TONIGHT INTO A 20-50% RANGE AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN/WHITTOCK
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK
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