731
FXUS65 KPSR 032005
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
105 PM MST SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK WITH MODEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL
TERRITORY WILL ARRIVE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WAS QUICKLY BECOMING DAMPENED AS
TROUGHING WITH INTENSIFYING JET ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS SLOWLY
ADVANCE INTO THE SW CONUS. THE INCREASED MOMENTUM IMPARTED BY THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SEASONALLY DEEP MIXING DEPTH WILL PROMOTE
REGIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR WESTERN CWA. WITH A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
DEEPENING THE WINDWARD MARINE LAYER AND OPTIMALLY TIMED ROBUST
HEIGHT FALLS EDGING INLAND, MOUNTAIN ROTORS AND HYDRAULIC JUMPS WILL
BE FAVORED THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY
WHERE SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AND DOWNSTREAM LOFTED DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SURFACE GUSTS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.
TROUGHING IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE INLAND
MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH H5 HEIGHTS RETREATING INTO A 568-574DM RANGE,
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABRUPTLY WHILE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
RESTRICT BETTER INSOLATION SUCH THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE 10F-
15F COOLER THAN TODAY (OR 5F-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY). WHILE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THICK CLOUDS MAY
RETARD MIXING DEPTHS AND THE ABILITY TO TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR,
LIMITING LOWER ELEVATIONS WINDS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED GUSTS RELEGATED
TO MOUNTAIN PEAKS. EVEN THE WINDIEST FAR SW IMPERIAL COUNTY
LOCATIONS MAY ONLY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HEIGHT FALLS WILL
HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST AND WINDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERIC DEPTH
WEAKENING QUICKLY.
THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A PLUME OF BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ABSORBED INTO
THE STRONGER SW FLOW ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
WHILE A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 600MB, TRENDS
IN MODELING SUGGEST BETTER AVAILABILITY OF 6-7 G/KG MIXING RATIOS IN
THE H8-H7 LAYER RESULTING IN TOTAL COLUMN PWATS NEAR 1.00" (OR
BETTER THAN 200% OF NORMAL) BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A MIDLEVEL FRONT
ALONG THE COLD CORE ALLOWING FAVORABLE SATURATED ASCENT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A TIME OF REDUCED LOW LEVEL T/TD SPREADS,
SO THE INFLUENCE OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION SHOULD BE REDUCED.
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT IS WIDELY VARYING THOUGH DOES ARGUE FOR BETTER
RAINFALL CHANCES IN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE REGIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE METRO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. OTHERWISE, AS THE COLD CORE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10F-15F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO
EVEN REACH 80F RESULTING IN POSSIBLY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TRAILING PIECE OF
ENERGY LEFT BEHIND THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
RESPECT TO THE POSITIONING AND SPEED AS IT GRADUALLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, IT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
REGION. WITH UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS STEADILY RISING FROM THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST, TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL RAPIDLY WARM FROM THE MIDDLE 80S ON WEDNESDAY
TO MIDDLE 90S ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
IS FORECAST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1815Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MARGINAL BREEZINESS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (THROUGH 04-05Z) WHERE GUST WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 15-25
KTS. CURRENT S/SE WINDS WILL GO MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, PRIOR
TO A LATER W/SW SHIFT THIS EVENING (23-00Z). WINDS WILL THEN GO BACK
SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
CROSSWINDS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW
PRIOR TO THE W/SW WIND SHIFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN SKIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME OVC BY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
SLANTWISE VIS/HAZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE
TO A BRUSH FIRE IN BUCKEYE. ONCE WINDS GO SW THIS EVENING, DEPENDING
ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS AT THAT POINT, THAT WILL PUSH ANY SMOKE TO
THE NE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS, MOST LIKELY TOWARDS KDVT AND KSDL,
STAYING NORTH OF KPHX AND KIWA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT SE'RLY WINDS AT KIPL WILL GO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON (21-
22Z) AND START GUSTING IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. GUSTS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING GUSTS WILL
LESSEN BACK INTO A 20-30 KT RANGE, BUT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KBLH, CURRENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL GO SW'RLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
IN THE MID 20S. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10-15 KT. THESE ENHANCED GUSTS WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST, WHICH MAY RESULT IN REDUCTIONS IN
VIS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF SUB-
VFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO A BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY MONDAY-
TUESDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DISTRICTS, HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY
OF WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTERNOON MINRHS
BETWEEN 10-20% WILL BE COMMON TODAY BEFORE INCREASING INTO A 15-25%
RANGE MONDAY AND INTO A 20-35% RANGE TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AS WELL
AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES ARE THEN FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ566-567.
SHORT TERM...18/LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page