635
FXUS65 KPSR 032315
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
415 PM MST SUN MAY 3 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK WITH MODEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL
TERRITORY WILL ARRIVE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WAS QUICKLY BECOMING DAMPENED AS
TROUGHING WITH INTENSIFYING JET ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS SLOWLY
ADVANCE INTO THE SW CONUS. THE INCREASED MOMENTUM IMPARTED BY THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SEASONALLY DEEP MIXING DEPTH WILL PROMOTE
REGIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR WESTERN CWA. WITH A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
DEEPENING THE WINDWARD MARINE LAYER AND OPTIMALLY TIMED ROBUST
HEIGHT FALLS EDGING INLAND, MOUNTAIN ROTORS AND HYDRAULIC JUMPS WILL
BE FAVORED THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY
WHERE SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AND DOWNSTREAM LOFTED DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SURFACE GUSTS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.
TROUGHING IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE INLAND
MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH H5 HEIGHTS RETREATING INTO A 568-574DM RANGE,
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABRUPTLY WHILE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
RESTRICT BETTER INSOLATION SUCH THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE 10F-
15F COOLER THAN TODAY (OR 5F-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY). WHILE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THICK CLOUDS MAY
RETARD MIXING DEPTHS AND THE ABILITY TO TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR,
LIMITING LOWER ELEVATIONS WINDS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED GUSTS RELEGATED
TO MOUNTAIN PEAKS. EVEN THE WINDIEST FAR SW IMPERIAL COUNTY
LOCATIONS MAY ONLY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HEIGHT FALLS WILL
HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST AND WINDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERIC DEPTH
WEAKENING QUICKLY.
THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A PLUME OF BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ABSORBED INTO
THE STRONGER SW FLOW ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
WHILE A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 600MB, TRENDS
IN MODELING SUGGEST BETTER AVAILABILITY OF 6-7 G/KG MIXING RATIOS IN
THE H8-H7 LAYER RESULTING IN TOTAL COLUMN PWATS NEAR 1.00" (OR
BETTER THAN 200% OF NORMAL) BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A MIDLEVEL FRONT
ALONG THE COLD CORE ALLOWING FAVORABLE SATURATED ASCENT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A TIME OF REDUCED LOW LEVEL T/TD SPREADS,
SO THE INFLUENCE OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION SHOULD BE REDUCED.
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT IS WIDELY VARYING THOUGH DOES ARGUE FOR BETTER
RAINFALL CHANCES IN FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE REGIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE METRO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. OTHERWISE, AS THE COLD CORE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10F-15F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO
EVEN REACH 80F RESULTING IN POSSIBLY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TRAILING PIECE OF
ENERGY LEFT BEHIND THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
RESPECT TO THE POSITIONING AND SPEED AS IT GRADUALLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, IT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
REGION. WITH UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS STEADILY RISING FROM THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST, TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL RAPIDLY WARM FROM THE MIDDLE 80S ON WEDNESDAY
TO MIDDLE 90S ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
IS FORECAST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2315Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTS 20-25 KT WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS RELAX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DIRECTIONS SHOULD FAVOR FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS, THOUGH THE
TYPICAL OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING E'RLY SHIFT MAY HAVE A MORE SE'RLY
COMPONENT TO IT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER EARLIER THAN USUAL,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WINDOW OF S'RLY CROSSWINDS AT KPHX AND KDVT,
BUT THE TYPICAL W'RLY SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE DURING A FAMILIAR
WINDOW (19-21Z). HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING, WITH BKN-OVC
SKIES BEING COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
SLANTWISE VIS/HAZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE
TO A BRUSH FIRE IN BUCKEYE. THE SW'RLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP AND SMOKE
AWAY FROM KPHX AND KIWA, BUT SOME OPERATIONAL IMPACTS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KSDL AND KDVT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT IPL, GUSTS 25-35 KTS WILL BE COMMON
THIS EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW OF GUSTS NEARING 40 KT.
THOUGH ANY AREAS OF BLOWING/LOFTED DUST SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF THE
TERMINAL, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF REDUCED SURFACE AND SLANTWISE VIS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT, THOUGH READINGS SHOULD DROP CLOSER TO 25 KT.
AT BLH, GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 25 KT, BUT ISOLATED HIGHER
NEAR 30 KT GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO A BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY MONDAY-
TUESDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DISTRICTS, HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY
OF WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTERNOON MINRHS
BETWEEN 10-20% WILL BE COMMON TODAY BEFORE INCREASING INTO A 15-25%
RANGE MONDAY AND INTO A 20-35% RANGE TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AS WELL
AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES ARE THEN FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ566-567.
SHORT TERM...18/LOJERO
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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