097
FXUS65 KPSR 042003
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
103 PM MST MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH MODEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW STARTING TO MOVE ON SHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CUT-OFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. AS THE
LOW MIGRATES INTO OUR REGION IT WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE OVER ARIZONA TOMORROW. THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS COVERED OUR REGION. THIS, ALONG WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT(DECREASING TO AROUND 568-574DM THIS AFTERNOON) WILL
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WHICH
IS AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY (AS OF AROUND
NOON). TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
ARE AROUND 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN
ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ALTHOUGH, THE THICK MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT WIND SPEEDS GETTING AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15-25 MPH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY
DIE TO MOUNTAIN ROTOR ACTION. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS COULD EXCEED
40 MPH ACROSS THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORY.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. PWATS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE
(AROUND 0.4-0.5"). HOWEVER, AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OUR AREA IT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PWATS PEAKING AROUND 0.7-1.0" DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE LARGE FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE LOW WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND
VIRGA TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO. HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANCES DO
EXIST ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO (~15-25%), BUT MOST ACTIVITY OVER
PHOENIX WILL BE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.20" ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. WHILE
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE
PHOENIX METRO, THEY WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
IT WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT (PWATS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO 0.4-0.5")
BEHIND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECASTED TO BE
COOLER TOMORROW AS THE CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND H5 HEIGHTS
LOWER EVEN FURTHER (INTO A 561-566DM RANGE) TOMORROW. DUE TO THIS,
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW, WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP TO KEEP THEM COOLER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PRIMARY ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A TRAILING PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL DEVELOP INTO A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN SONORA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN JET
STREAM ENERGY, LATEST TRENDS HAS BEEN FOR A FASTER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AND BEYOND WILL BE THE RISING TEMPERATURES WITH AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A RAPID WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK UP
IN THE 90S ON THURSDAY AND INTO TRIPLE DIGITS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND. AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, THE
OVERALL HEATRISK LEVEL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE INTO
THE MODERATE CATEGORY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1750Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN SLANTWISE VSBY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE AS
WELL AS LOWER CIGS WHICH ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND WILL BECOME ELEVATED OUT OF THE W-SW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. NO DIURNAL EASTERLY SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH WINDS
CONTINUING OUT OF THE SW. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 05Z
AT KIWA AND 07Z AT KPHX. CEILINGS WILL GRADUAL LOWER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CLOUD BASES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 KFT AT KPHX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AS LOW
AS 3.5 KFT AT THE OTHER METRO TERMINALS.
SLANTWISE VIS/HAZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN DUE TO THE BRUSH FIRE IN BUCKEYE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
PREVAIL OUT OF THE W-SW, SO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS, MAINLY AT KSDL
AND KDVT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY W-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT KIPL, GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, OUT OF THE WEST. WITH THESE WINDS,
BLOWING/LOFTED DUST AROUND THE KIPL TERMINAL MAY BE POSSIBLE,
LEADING TO CONCERNS OF REDUCED SURFACE AND SLANTWISE VIS. AT BLH,
EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THREAT THROUGH TOMORROW
(TUESDAY) AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH ONLY A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT
EXPECTED AS HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL LIMIT A GREATER RISK. SOME
MODEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN DISTRICTS, LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS REMAINING ON THE LOW
SIDE. AFTERNOON MINRHS BETWEEN 15-25% WILL BE COMMON TODAY BEFORE
INCREASING INTO A 20-35% RANGE TUESDAY ALONG WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. LIGHTER WINDS AS WELL AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...LOJERO
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO/BERISLAVICH
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