921
FXUS65 KPSR 120930
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 105 TO 107 DEGREES.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
- A MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL DROP
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES,
LASTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD H5
HEIGHTS IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS DID RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO YESTERDAY ALONG WITH
SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION MAKING ITS WAY
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT OVERALL TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY, HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS
WILL BRING SOME SLIGHT RELIEF FROM YESTERDAY'S NEAR 110 DEGREE
HIGHS AS READINGS MOSTLY TOP OUT BETWEEN 102-106 DEGREES. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN MORE DOMINANT ACROSS ARIZONA RESULTING IN HIGHS
OF 105-107 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA WHERE AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
LIKELY SOME CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS BY
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS ANOTHER STRONGER
PACIFIC WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE INTO A LARGER TROUGH WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, IT WILL COMPLETELY DISPLACE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
OF OUR REGION ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED SHIFT TO A MORE
ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW PATTERN, BUT WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM
PASSING TROUGHS TO OUR NORTH. THE DRYING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING QUITE STABLE AVERAGING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORING A LARGER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND BRINGING LOWER HEIGHTS
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NBM/WPC TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS FALLING BACK MORE INTO THE UPPER
90S BY AROUND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0550Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SSW-W WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF FAMILIAR E'RLY DRAINAGE DIRECTIONS
TONIGHT (ALREADY ESTABLISHED AT KSDL, KDVT). BY 18-20Z TUESDAY,
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO GOOD THAT SSW-SW WINDS WILL BECOME
FAVORED ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KTS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING,
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO STRONGER SW-W
GUSTS, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNAL SIMILAR TO A GULF
SURGE. HOWEVER, VIRGA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE PHOENIX
AIRSPACE COULD CONCEIVABLY CAUSE SOME ERRATIC WIND BEHAVIOR AND
GUSTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND THE SAME TIME, WITH A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF THAT IMPACT AT KIWA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS VARYING BETWEEN SSE-SSW AT KBLH AND BETWEEN
SE AND W AT KIPL WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A PERIOD OF VRB WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PRECEDE A SHIFT OUT OF THE S AT KBLH AND SE
AT KIPL BETWEEN 08-11Z TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH GUSTS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 20 KTS AT KIPL AND 25 KTS AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT, DRY, AND LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ALONG WITH RHS 7-10% ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE TODAY, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DROPPING TO 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING THURSDAY, BUT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ537-540-
542>544-546-548-550-551.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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