176
FXUS65 KPSR 130944
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
244 AM MST WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER TODAY AND REMAIN STABLE AT AROUND
FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD THEN DIP INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN RETURN TO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK IS GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE EXITING OF THE RIDGE TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEPRESS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
NOTICEABLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WITH
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA.
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND OVER
THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK TROUGHING IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY STAY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. LOWER DESERT HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO DRIVE
A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH AT LEAST
ONE PIECE OF ENERGY REACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AND/OR SUNDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND HUMIDITIES SEASONABLY LOW.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS ASSOCIATED
ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCES STILL REMAIN, BUT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION IT
IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
FAVORS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY, THE
ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP FURTHER STARTING AROUND SUNDAY,
BUT MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. A DEEPER SYSTEM
COULD DROP LOWER DESERT HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES, WHEREAS ONE
THAT SOMEWHAT BYPASSES TO THE NORTH MAY ONLY BRING MID 90S FOR A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE
MOSTLY SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST NBM/WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS
READINGS POTENTIALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0510Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BEFORE THE TYPICAL WESTERLY SWITCHOVER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY CROSSWINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST NEAR KIWA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS UNDER SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT
KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST WHILE AT KBLH, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS BEFORE
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND AT KIPL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT, DRY, AND LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ALONG WITH RHS 7-10% ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE TODAY, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DROPPING TO 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING THURSDAY, BUT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...18/KUHLMAN
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