588
FXUS65 KPSR 131700
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST WED MAY 13 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER TODAY AND REMAIN STABLE AT AROUND
FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD THEN DIP INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN RETURN TO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK IS GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE EXITING OF THE RIDGE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO NOTICEABLY COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
TODAY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. WEAK
TROUGHING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FOR THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. LOWER
DESERT HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO DRIVE
A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH AT LEAST
ONE PIECE OF ENERGY REACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING SKIES CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND HUMIDITIES SEASONABLY LOW. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS ASSOCIATED ANY PASSING
DISTURBANCES BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES STILL
REMAIN, BUT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION IT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
CURRENT TIMING OF THE STRONGER WINDS FAVORS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY, THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP FURTHER STARTING AROUND SUNDAY, BUT
MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. A DEEPER SYSTEM COULD
DROP LOWER DESERT HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES, WHEREAS ONE THAT
SOMEWHAT BYPASSES TO THE NORTH MAY ONLY BRING MID 90S FOR A DAY OR
TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOW A
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING GRADUALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST NBM/WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS READINGS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF A SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETING THE
SWITCH TO W/SW. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KT WILL BE COMMON BEFORE
DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET. THE NOCTURNAL SWITCH TO EASTERLY WILL
AGAIN OCCUR SOMEWHAT LATER THAN USUAL, BUT EARLIER AND MORE DEFINED
THAN THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUD DECKS. S-SW WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED AT KBLH WHILE A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE COMMON AT KIPL. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL
EXTEND FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING
AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT, DRY, AND LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ALONG WITH RHS 7-10% ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE TODAY, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DROPPING TO 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING THURSDAY, BUT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...18/KUHLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page