216
FXUS65 KPSR 132015
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 PM MST WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STABLE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY FURTHER COOLING CLOSER TO THE DAILY
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS FULLY SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ELONGATED TROUGHING AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD INTO THE SW CONUS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS IMPORTED A MEASURE
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO THE REGION, HOWEVER LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN LARGELY DESSICATED RELEGATING ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
THIS TROUGHING FEATURE WILL, HOWEVER, AID IN MECHANICAL MIXING OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THOUGH THIS EVENING,
THOUGH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE RELEGATED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE, MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
WEAK TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SW CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 582DM, AND FORCING A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD OF AFTERNOON HIGHS 4F-8F ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS SUPPORT COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY CLOSE TO THE DAILY NORMALS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO DRIVE A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH AT LEAST ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY REACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING SKIES CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND HUMIDITIES SEASONABLY LOW. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS ASSOCIATED ANY PASSING
DISTURBANCES BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES STILL
REMAIN, BUT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION IT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
CURRENT TIMING OF THE STRONGER WINDS FAVORS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY, THE ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP FURTHER STARTING AROUND SUNDAY, BUT
MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. A DEEPER SYSTEM COULD
DROP LOWER DESERT HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES, WHEREAS ONE THAT
SOMEWHAT BYPASSES TO THE NORTH MAY ONLY BRING MID 90S FOR A DAY OR
TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOW A
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING GRADUALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST NBM/WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS READINGS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF A SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETING THE
SWITCH TO W/SW. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KT WILL BE COMMON BEFORE
DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET. THE NOCTURNAL SWITCH TO EASTERLY WILL
AGAIN OCCUR SOMEWHAT LATER THAN USUAL, BUT EARLIER AND MORE DEFINED
THAN THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUD DECKS. S-SW WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED AT KBLH WHILE A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE COMMON AT KIPL. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL
EXTEND FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING
AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT, DRY, AND LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ALONG WITH RHS 7-10% ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE TODAY, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DROPPING TO 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING THURSDAY, BUT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...18/KUHLMAN
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