472
FXUS65 KPSR 150525
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1025 PM MST THU MAY 14 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY STABLE TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN COOL
CLOSER TO THE DAILY NORMALS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL, HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY REMAIN 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH THE FORECASTED HIGH IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARDS OVER TODAY AND FRIDAY,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AFFECTED BY 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY
AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. H5 HEIGHTS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL FLOAT
BETWEEN 580-584 DAM, WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE DESPITE
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR, AND ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE OVERNIGHT RADIATIVE
COOLING KEEPING THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S, ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION AND STRONGLY NEGATIVE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER, WPC CLUSTER
ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN HOW STRONG THIS TROUGH
WILL BE AND THE PRECISE TIMING, RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN, BUT SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE ABOUT THIS LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING FEATURE, AFFECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS) FAVORS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY, THE EASTERN AZ HIGHER
TERRAIN SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THAT BEING SAID, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SW PORTION OF IMPERIAL COUNTY STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WILL PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. LATEST NBM
PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS SPREAD INCREASING, WITH
IQRS OF AT LEAST 5F SUNDAY ONWARD. HOWEVER, MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH MANY LOWER DESERT AREAS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S. NEGATIVE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES APPEAR TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO 580 DAM.
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM IN RESPONSE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, LIKELY NEARING 100F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE, WITH ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY SHOWING RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0520Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE COMMON WHILE AT KBLH, WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LIGHTER
WINDS WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZINESS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
US RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHEAST CA, WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, AND INTO SOUTHWEST AZ ON SATURDAY, THEN
THE EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS AFTERNOON
MINRHS WILL COMMONLY FALL IN AN 8-15% RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES RANGING FROM 25-45% ACROSS THE AREA
AND IMPROVING ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THERE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN/WHITTOCK
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK
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