560
FXUS65 KPSR 162117
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
217 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO A NEAR NORMAL RANGE SUNDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BROAD TROUGHING HAS NOW ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH THE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA AND DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGHING FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
DIVING DOWN THE INTO THE DESERT SW WITH THE CORE EXPECTED TO CLIP
NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER THIS WEEKEND, AS
THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS, ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING TOWARDS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A STRONGER CORE OF
VORTICITY AND NEGATIVE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAN THE SHORT
WAVE THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY'S,
IN THE UPPER 90S. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AS THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 90S AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY, 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN AS THE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARDS RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN DESERT TODAY. DUE TO THIS
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW PORTION OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED TO 53 MPH IN THE MOUNTAIN
SPRINGS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPAND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE IMPERIAL VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 40 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, PEAKING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH IN THE ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS, 30-40 MPH IN THE
EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND 45-55 MPH IN SW IMPERIAL COUNTY.
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 15%
AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
THIS HAS LEAD THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER TO BECOME CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN. AS A RESULT A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND TONTO NATIONAL FOREST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS THE CORE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD, SOME
MEASURE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN AND
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE, A
STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MOST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL JET FORMING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DEVELOPING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SENT
DOWNSTREAM AND NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. REGARDLESS OF THE
DETAILS AND HOW WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
EVENTUALLY RESOLVES, ESSENTIALLY ALL SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY SHOW THE
REGION REMAINING COMPLETELY DRY, WITH PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1750Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED CROSS-RUNWAY WINDS AT KPHX FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W-SW WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SUSTAINED S-SE WINDS AROUND
10-11 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20-22 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS. EXPECTED WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL EASTERLY
SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT KIWA AND KPHX LATE TONIGHT. BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND BECOME ELEVATED UP TO 10-11 KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WHILE AT KBLH WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. AT KIPL, A PERIOD OF
STRONGER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND
MAY EXCEED 30 KTS, WITH AROUND 70% CHANCE FOR PEAK GUSTS >35 KTS
BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. WIND DIRECTIONS OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
IDEAL TO BRING DUST PLUMES THROUGH KIPL, BUT SOME HAZY EVENING
SKIES MAY STILL DEVELOP. WINDS WILL RELAX AT KBLH AFTER SUNSET,
BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KIPL OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL OVER SE CALIFORNIA.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND, APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS AND ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WIND GUSTS WILL COMMONLY PEAK BETWEEN
20-35 MPH TODAY, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN SOUTHEAST CA. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS BY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL BE COMMON. A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING SUNDAY 11 AM MST FOR
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND TONTO NF FOOTHILLS. AFTERNOON MINRHS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-15% TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-20% AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 30-50% TONIGHT WILL IMPROVE
PRIMARILY FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40-60%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ133.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ563-566-567.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...WHITTOCK
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK
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