408
FXUS65 KPSR 170023
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
523 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO A NEAR NORMAL RANGE SUNDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BROAD TROUGHING HAS NOW ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH THE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA AND DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGHING FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
DIVING DOWN THE INTO THE DESERT SW WITH THE CORE EXPECTED TO CLIP
NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER THIS WEEKEND, AS
THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS, ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING TOWARDS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A STRONGER CORE OF
VORTICITY AND NEGATIVE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAN THE SHORT
WAVE THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY'S,
IN THE UPPER 90S. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AS THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 90S AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY, 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN AS THE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARDS RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN DESERT TODAY. DUE TO THIS
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW PORTION OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED TO 53 MPH IN THE MOUNTAIN
SPRINGS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPAND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE IMPERIAL VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 40 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, PEAKING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH IN THE ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS, 30-40 MPH IN THE
EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND 45-55 MPH IN SW IMPERIAL COUNTY.
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 15%
AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
THIS HAS LEAD THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER TO BECOME CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN. AS A RESULT A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND TONTO NATIONAL FOREST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS THE CORE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD, SOME
MEASURE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN AND
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE, A
STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MOST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL JET FORMING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DEVELOPING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SENT
DOWNSTREAM AND NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. REGARDLESS OF THE
DETAILS AND HOW WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
EVENTUALLY RESOLVES, ESSENTIALLY ALL SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY SHOW THE
REGION REMAINING COMPLETELY DRY, WITH PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0020Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED CROSS-RUNWAY WINDS AT KPHX LATE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH GUSTY W-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. W-SW
WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 20KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z, BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (8-13KT) INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
THEN GO BACK E-SE AROUND 08-10Z AND DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KT. A
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY CROSSWINDS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT. WINDS WILL
THEN GO W-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20KT. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH FEW HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WHILE AT KBLH WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KTS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT KIPL, A PERIOD OF STRONGER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND MAY EXCEED 30 KTS,
WITH AROUND 70% CHANCE FOR PEAK GUSTS >35 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z.
WIND DIRECTIONS OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE IDEAL TO BRING DUST
PLUMES THROUGH KIPL, BUT SOME HAZY EVENING SKIES MAY STILL
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL RELAX AT KBLH AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AT KIPL OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KIPL BE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER SE CALIFORNIA.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND, APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS AND ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WIND GUSTS WILL COMMONLY PEAK BETWEEN
20-35 MPH TODAY, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN SOUTHEAST CA. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS BY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL BE COMMON. A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING SUNDAY 11 AM MST FOR
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND TONTO NF FOOTHILLS. AFTERNOON MINRHS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-15% TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-20% AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 30-50% TONIGHT WILL IMPROVE
PRIMARILY FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40-60%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ133.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ563-566-567.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...WHITTOCK
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/WHITTOCK
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