085
FXUS65 KPSR 251735
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 AM MST MON MAY 25 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL COOL BY MIDWEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS TO THE LOWER NINETIES IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK BUT STILL FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS
OF ARIZONA THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD BY MID MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ARIZONA HIGH
COUNTRY, BUT CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REACHING NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
ON TUESDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF IMPERIAL COUNTY BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
EXCELLENT SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE PACIFIC LOW MOVING FARTHER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR OUR REGION WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAVING WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR
PHOENIX, HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO EASILY TOP 90
DEGREES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 95 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE PACIFIC LOW LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLING
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF LOW ON THURSDAY
AND PROBABLY EVEN FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHS AT MOST IN THE LOWER 90S EITHER
DAY. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA, BUT GUSTS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW 25
MPH.
THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LEADING TO WARMING CONDITIONS. MODELS FAVOR
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW, BUT STAYING MOSTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION. NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES REFLECT THIS
BUILDING RIDGE BY CALLING FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
START OF JUNE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A N/NE'RLY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, THE
ARRIVAL WINDOW OF THIS FEATURE LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN 00-02Z. SOME
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS HOW POTENT IT MAY BE, BUT GUSTS UPWARDS OF
25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW
FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN WHICH THERE MAY BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF VRB CONDITIONS BEFORE THE USUAL NIGHTLY/EARLY MORNING
E'RLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST AND
NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINALS AS CHANCES REMAIN <10%. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DECKS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE FOR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, MAINLY AT KIPL, WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS MAY
REACH UPWARDS OF 30 KT BETWEEN 00-06Z BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KBLH, DIURNAL TRENDS CAN BE EXPECTED,
WITH PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER TODAY, BUT
IT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20% THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY, BUT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THE THREAT FOR NEW WILDFIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE HEIGHTENED. MINRHS WILL MOSTLY STAY BETWEEN 10-15%
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO 15-20% OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A
SECOND MUCH LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID WEEK CREATING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A
CONCERN STARTING TUESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP, BUT A DIP IN
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RHS WILL SOMEWHAT HELP TO
CURTAIL THE THREAT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. AS WINDS DIE DOWN
LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHILE AFTERNOON RHS FALL TO AROUND OR EVEN
BELOW 10%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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