444
FXUS65 KPSR 251917
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1217 PM MST MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDWEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
EIGHTIES ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TO LOWER NINETIES ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AND THEN AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FORCING ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHERN AND BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX, A
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A STRONG PACIFIC LOW
THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY WITH PEAK AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS
IN THE ORDER OF 25-35 MPH. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY, MOUNTAIN ROTORS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER GUSTS THAT WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 40 MPH. AS A RESULT, WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY, INCLUDING THE IMPERIAL
VALLEY FOR TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM THE LOW WILL THEN SPREAD
INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS MATERIALIZING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS PEAK
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING REACH 20-35 MPH, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY ONCE AGAIN.
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT AS WELL.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SETTLES TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS, OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S,
WITH CENTRAL PHOENIX TOPPING OUT NEAR 95 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE PACIFIC LOW LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLING
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF LOW ON THURSDAY
AND PROBABLY EVEN FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHS AT MOST IN THE LOWER 90S EITHER
DAY. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA, BUT GUSTS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW 25
MPH.
THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LEADING TO WARMING CONDITIONS. MODELS FAVOR
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW, BUT STAYING MOSTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION. NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES REFLECT THIS
BUILDING RIDGE BY CALLING FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
START OF JUNE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A N/NE'RLY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, THE
ARRIVAL WINDOW OF THIS FEATURE LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN 00-02Z. SOME
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS HOW POTENT IT MAY BE, BUT GUSTS UPWARDS OF
25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW
FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN WHICH THERE MAY BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF VRB CONDITIONS BEFORE THE USUAL NIGHTLY/EARLY MORNING
E'RLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST AND
NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINALS AS CHANCES REMAIN <10%. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DECKS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE FOR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, MAINLY AT KIPL, WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS MAY
REACH UPWARDS OF 30 KT BETWEEN 00-06Z BEFORE SPEEDS GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KBLH, DIURNAL TRENDS CAN BE EXPECTED,
WITH PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER TODAY, BUT
IT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20% THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS GILA COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY, BUT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THE THREAT FOR NEW WILDFIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE HEIGHTENED. MINRHS WILL MOSTLY STAY BETWEEN 10-15%
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO 15-20% OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A
SECOND MUCH LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID WEEK CREATING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A
CONCERN STARTING TUESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP, BUT A DIP IN
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RHS WILL SOMEWHAT HELP TO
CURTAIL THE THREAT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. AS WINDS DIE DOWN
LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHILE AFTERNOON RHS FALL TO AROUND OR EVEN
BELOW 10%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ566-
567.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO/KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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