227
FXUS65 KPSR 261127
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
427 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CALIFORNIA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS TO THE LOWER NINETIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS TOPPING 100 DEGREES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY IS FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, ANOTHER MUCH LARGER
PACIFIC LOW IS ALREADY MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH BECOMING COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY WITH BLOWING DUST
BECOMING A POSSIBILITY.
AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS COOLER AIR
MASS WILL LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TO AS LOW AS THE LOWER 90S IN THE
PHOENIX AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE HEAVILY FAVORS THE PACIFIC LOW STAYING IN PLACE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT IT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN FILLING AND LESSENING THE THREAT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, BUT MORE MUTED COMPARED TO
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY BEGIN SHIFTING
MORE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.
NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS TO AROUND THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HEIGHT RISES AND
WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM/WPC FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOWS HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND AS HIGH
AS 104-108 DEGREES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1124Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WESTERLY SHIFT
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PICK BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS. JUST PAST MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL RELAX
AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OUT OF THE EAST WHILE THE TWO NORTHERN
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH THE EXCEPTION TO FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH 25-30 KT WESTERLY GUSTS AT
KIPL EXPECTED AGAIN BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 30 KTS AT
KBLH BY ~18Z THROUGH PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KIPL AND FAVOR A S-SW AT
KBLH. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY GENERATE BLOWING DUST ENOUGH TO CREATE
SOME SLANTWISE VISIBILITY IMPACTS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SURFACE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN.
FIRE WEATHER
A MUCH LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CREATING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK UP AND
MINRHS STAY BETWEEN 10-20%. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, WHILE TEMPERATURES
DIP AND MINRHS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY (15-25%). BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DYING DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND FALLING
RHS, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ566-567.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN/BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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