413
FXUS65 KPSR 261956 AAD
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1256 PM MST TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS TO THE LOW NINETIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS TOPPING 100 DEGREES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE, POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN
CA. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF
ARIZONA, WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY, MOUNTAIN ROTORS WILL LEAD TO
EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT. WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COME THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST, RESULTING IN TEMPORARILY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLIGHTLY MIGRATE INTO
CENTRAL CA ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL
DECREASE INTO THE 568-576DM RANGE AND THUS COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO A BELOW NORMAL CATEGORY CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMER, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW 90S. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WILL EXTEND AREAWIDE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO AZ. WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING PEAK GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 25-35 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF IMPERIAL COUNTY ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE HEAVILY FAVORS THE PACIFIC LOW STAYING IN PLACE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT IT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN FILLING AND LESSENING THE THREAT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, BUT MORE MUTED COMPARED TO
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY BEGIN SHIFTING
MORE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY.
NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS TO AROUND THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HEIGHT RISES AND
WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM/WPC FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOWS HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND AS HIGH
AS 104-108 DEGREES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1730Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS WITH A SLOWER THAN NORMAL SWITCH
TO THE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF SOUTHERLY CROSSWINDS
AT KPHX AND KDVT. MARGINAL BREEZINESS AROUND 15-20 KT WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SPEEDS RELAX
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION,
BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KIPL
THIS EVENING, WITH HINTS OF POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
AROUND 09-10Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE THESE HIGHER GUSTS IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, SO UPDATES TO THE TAF MAY BE NEEDED IF GUSTS 35+ KT ARE
REALIZED. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING DUST, BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
EXTENDED PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS. AT KBLH GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 KT CAN
BE ANTICIPATED, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THERE AS WELL, AS
THERE ARE SIGNS GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, UPDATES
MAY REQUIRED IF THE TAF BECOMES OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS, SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
A MUCH LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CREATING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK UP AND
MINRHS STAY BETWEEN 10-20%. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, WHILE TEMPERATURES
DIP AND MINRHS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY (15-25%). BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DYING DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND FALLING
RHS, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ566-567.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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