160
FXUS65 KPSR 271737
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1037 AM MST WED MAY 27 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS TODAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE REST OF
ARIZONA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS TOPPING 100 DEGREES BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
OUTER EXPANSES OF THE LOW ALSO EXTEND WELL INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, PARTICULARLY INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED TODAY. A MODESTLY STRONG
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA TODAY PROVIDING A
CONTINUATION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY WHERE GUSTS
OF OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MOST COMMONLY REACH BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING 30 MPH. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S,
WHEREAS THE PHOENIX AREA WILL STILL EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER
90S.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FILLING LATER STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NEVADA AND THEN UTAH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT DURING THIS
WEAKENING PHASE WILL SLACKEN OFF ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS THURSDAY WILL PRIMARILY TOP OUT
AROUND 25 MPH AND MAINLY BE OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE
WINDS RETURN TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE ON TODAY'S HIGHS BEFORE AREAWIDE
HIGHS FRIDAY BECOME MORE UNIFORM IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ONCE THE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY, HEIGHT RISES AND MODEST WARMING WILL SPREAD OVER OUR
REGION. A RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM/WPC FORECAST
TEMPERATURES REACH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY AND
THEN WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE BY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN
FAVORS THE RIDGE TO SHIFT WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO BY AROUND MONDAY OR AT THE LATEST
TUESDAY. DUE TO THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE, H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR 588DM BY TUESDAY, OR JUST SHY OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY TOP 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY MONDAY WITH PEAK READINGS
ANYWHERE FROM 103-108 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND/OR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY PUSH OUR HEATRISK INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY, BUT RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF REACHING NEAR THE MAJOR
CATEGORY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASING MOISTURE
FIRST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AROUND MONDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY
ADVECTING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA AS EARLY NEXT TUESDAY. IF THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMES TO FRUITION, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY COME INTO THE PICTURE BY
TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY S-SW WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND A PROLONGED PERIOD
WITH A SOUTHERLY CROSS-RUNWAY COMPONENT AT KPHX WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY ESTABLISHED OUT OF A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS OBSERVED.
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN 160-210 BEFORE GAINING A MORE
DECIDEDLY WESTERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 21-23Z. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
BETWEEN 03-05Z THIS EVENING, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL E/SE WIND SWITCH BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION TO THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
30 KTS AT KIPL AND SW-S GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS AT KBLH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS PEAKING EARLY THIS
EVENING (OVERNIGHT AT KIPL). THE WINDS WILL GENERATE BLOWING DUST
REGIONALLY, WHICH MAY REDUCE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY, BUT THE WIND
ORIENTATION WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT THE TERMINALS. FEW HIGH CIRRUS WILL PASS OVERHEAD AT
TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF OVER 25 MPH AND MINRHS BETWEEN 12-20%.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF OVER 30-35 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE REGION OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY WITH READINGS STAY AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO QUICK INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND FALLING
RHS, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK/RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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