642
FXUS65 KPSR 271911
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1211 PM MST WED MAY 27 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER OVER CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 100 FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA LOW PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST
INFLUENCE FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE FELT OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA, WHERE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT. AFTERNOON READINGS WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY WILL RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW,
TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S, STILL BELOW NORMAL, BUT CLOSER TO WHAT IS
MORE COMMON FOR LATE MAY.
AFTER A BREEZY DAY REGIONWIDE YESTERDAY, THANKS TO THE APPROACH
OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM TIGHTENING UP OUR REGIONAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO 20-30 MPH FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TYPICALLY WINDY SPOTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35+ MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL OF GUSTS REACHING 45+ MPH.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, THE CALIFORNIA LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD UTAH. AS THIS OCCURS, THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN,
BUT WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO DO SO, SO BREEZY AND LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY REGIONWIDE,
BEFORE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, TRENDS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION. OVER SE
CA, READINGS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS, WHILE FURTHER EAST, A
DOWNTREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COOLER AIR SPREADS FURTHER INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. REGARDLESS OF YOUR LOCATION, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ONCE THE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY, HEIGHT RISES AND MODEST WARMING WILL SPREAD OVER OUR
REGION. A RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM/WPC FORECAST
TEMPERATURES REACH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY AND
THEN WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE BY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN
FAVORS THE RIDGE TO SHIFT WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO BY AROUND MONDAY OR AT THE LATEST
TUESDAY. DUE TO THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE, H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR 588DM BY TUESDAY, OR JUST SHY OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY TOP 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY MONDAY WITH PEAK READINGS
ANYWHERE FROM 103-108 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND/OR NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY PUSH OUR HEATRISK INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY, BUT RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF REACHING NEAR THE MAJOR
CATEGORY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASING MOISTURE
FIRST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AROUND MONDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY
ADVECTING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA AS EARLY NEXT TUESDAY. IF THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMES TO FRUITION, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY COME INTO THE PICTURE BY
TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY S-SW WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND A PROLONGED PERIOD
WITH A SOUTHERLY CROSS-RUNWAY COMPONENT AT KPHX WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY ESTABLISHED OUT OF A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS OBSERVED.
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN 160-210 BEFORE GAINING A MORE
DECIDEDLY WESTERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 21-23Z. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
BETWEEN 03-05Z THIS EVENING, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL E/SE WIND SWITCH BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION TO THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
30 KTS AT KIPL AND SW-S GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS AT KBLH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS PEAKING EARLY THIS
EVENING (OVERNIGHT AT KIPL). THE WINDS WILL GENERATE BLOWING DUST
REGIONALLY, WHICH MAY REDUCE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY, BUT THE WIND
ORIENTATION WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT THE TERMINALS. FEW HIGH CIRRUS WILL PASS OVERHEAD AT
TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF OVER 25 MPH AND MINRHS BETWEEN 12-20%.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF OVER 30-35 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE REGION OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY WITH READINGS STAY AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO QUICK INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND FALLING
RHS, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK/RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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