589
FXUS65 KPSR 281142
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
442 AM MST THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER OVER CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 100 FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT TODAY. BY FRIDAY THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, HOWEVER NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS WHILE CENTRAL ARIZONA, TO INCLUDE THE
PHOENIX METRO, WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OUT WEST STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WHILE CENTRAL ARIZONA, AND THE PHOENIX METRO, WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARDS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WON'T LAST FOR LONG WITH
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS H5
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY INCREASE, AND WILL LEAD TO TRIPPLE
DIGITS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOWER DESERT REGION.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PST IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY, THEN ANOTHER WILL TAKE
EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT AT 7 PM PST DUE TO GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. OTHER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT CAN STILL EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BY THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TOWARDS NORMAL
WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE TRIPPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS AS H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVORS A RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE AXIS
CENTERED THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA H5 HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 585-588 DAM
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 103F-108F STARTING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
COOLING 1-2 DEGREES LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
PUSH OUR HEATRISK INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY, BUT RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF REACHING NEAR THE MAJOR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1140Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD WITH A SOUTHERLY CROSS-RUNWAY COMPONENT AT KPHX AND KDVT,
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH GUSTS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A RETURN OF WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF AROUND 25 KTS AT KIPL AND
SW-S GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS AT KBLH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS OF OVER 25 MPH AND MINRHS BETWEEN 12-20%. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS OF OVER 30-35 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE REGION OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
WITH READINGS STAY AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
QUICK INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND FALLING RHS, BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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