867
FXUS65 KPSR 290927
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
227 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM INTO AN
ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS
REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON GOES MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA/SOUTHWESTERN NV. THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
SATURDAY THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT TODAY CAUSING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
OR ABOUT 10F-15F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVER THE
WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE PRESENT, WITH SATURDAY
EXPERIENCING QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S, AND SUNDAY CLIMBING JUST BARELY INTO THE TRIPPLE DIGITS AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN CA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE FAR SW CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TODAY. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED IN THE IMPERIAL VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE MORNING,
HOWEVER WILL RELAX TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT CAUTION SHOULD
STILL BE USED AS LOCALIZED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN STILL
BE POSSIBLE. SHIFTING OUR ATTENTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX, WHERE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
OUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE DESERT SW
STARTING MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
THIS RIDGE MORE EASTWARDS TO NOW BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF TEXAS, WHERE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE AXIS CENTERED MORE OVER
CENTRAL TO WESTERN TEXAS. REGARDLESS OF THE RIDGE AXIS, H5 HEIGHTS
OVER ARIZONA WILL INCREASE TO 585-588 DAM CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO 103F-108F STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY PUSH OUR HEATRISK
INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY, BUT RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF REACHING
NEAR THE MAJOR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF THE TYPICAL
E'RLY SHIFT TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. FOR KPHX, UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS SHIFT HAS INCREASED AND SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS IT MAY
NOT OCCUR AT ALL. SUBSEQUENT AMENDMENTS AND FORECAST PACKAGES
SHOULD PROJECT A HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON IF SOME DEGREE OF
E'RLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT
KIWA, WHERE SE/SSE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS, W'RLY
WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL, WITH GUSTS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING BY THE LATE
MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AT KIPL TONIGHT, BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IS SHOWN DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING, BUT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE TAME WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT. AT BLH, SW
WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS OF
WNW'RLY FLOW FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TODAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF OVER
30-35 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL THEN MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EASTWARDS, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE
EASTERN DISTRICT, DESPITE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON MINRHS TO A
15-20% RANGE AREAWIDE TODAY. LIGHTER, MORE TYPICAL WINDS FOR LATE
MAY WILL RETURN SATURDAY ONWARD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING AN ABOVE
NORMAL CATEGORY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TEMPERATURES HEAT UP,
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO SEASONALLY LOW LEVELS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK/RYAN
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