047
FXUS65 KPSR 291126
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
425 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOCUSED
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM INTO AN ABOVE
NORMAL CATEGORY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON GOES MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA/SOUTHWESTERN NV. THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
SATURDAY, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA, THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TODAY CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, OR ABOUT 10F-15F BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVER THE WEEKEND, NEAR NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS WILL
BE PRESENT WITH SATURDAY EXPERIENCING QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, AND SUNDAY CLIMBING JUST
BARELY INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AS RIDGING BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION.
OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN CA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE FAR SW CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TODAY. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED IN THE IMPERIAL VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE MORNING,
HOWEVER WILL RELAX BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
USED AS LOCALIZED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHIFTING OUR ATTENTION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE DESERT SW STARTING
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
MORE EASTWARD, NOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS, WHERE
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE AXIS CENTERED MORE OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN
TEXAS. REGARDLESS OF THE RIDGE AXIS POSITION, H5 HEIGHTS OVER
ARIZONA WILL INCREASE TO 585-588 DAM CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
103F-108F STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY PUSH OUR HEATRISK INTO A MODERATE
CATEGORY, BUT RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF REACHING NEAR THE MAJOR
CATEGORY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1125Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING PRECISE
WIND DIRECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH A DEFINITIVE, PROLONGED EASTERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLY NOT SETTLING OVER THE ENTIRE PHOENIX METRO, BUT
RATHER KEEPING A MORE VARIABLE DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN
A WESTERLY DIRECTION WILL RETURN EARLY THAN USUAL BY MID/LATE
MORNING, THEN INCORPORATING A FEW OCCASIONAL 15-20KT GUSTS MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. A MORE DEFINED EASTERLY SWITCH SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT
KIPL WHILE OSCILLATING BETWEEN SW AND NW AT KBLH. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 10KT WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING GUSTINESS, THOUGH FAR WEAKER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
THE LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF OVER 30-35 MPH WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL THEN MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICT, DESPITE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
MINRHS TO A 15-20% RANGE AREAWIDE TODAY. LIGHTER, MORE TYPICAL WINDS
FOR LATE MAY WILL RETURN SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING AN ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TEMPERATURES HEAT UP, HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP TO SEASONALLY LOW LEVELS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK/RYAN
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